Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) Fair Value 2026

FMS · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) trades at $23.10, versus a $67.88 median fair value across its 10 active models — 193.9% above the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $85.89.

Key Facts

Ticker
FMS
Price
$23.10
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +271.8% upside with 69% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $67.88, 193.9% above the current price of $23.10. Estimates range from $21.39 to $95.08. FMS scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. FMS’s +193.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -28.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Fresenius Medical Care AG Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FMS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $85.89 +271.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $42.21 +82.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $64.93 +181.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $30.27 +31.0%
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What Is FMS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $21.39 to $95.08

CirclFi's 10 active models place Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) between $21.39 and $95.08 per share, a spread of 109% of the median. The median of that range — $67.88 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FMS, against a current price of $23.10.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$21.39median $67.88$95.08
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$21.39
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$95.08
Model agreement9 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FMS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FMS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Fresenius Medical Care AG is potentially undervalued at its current price of $23.10. Based on our 13-model framework, Fresenius Medical Care AG's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $67.88 — representing +193.9% implied upside — with 9 out of 10 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $95.08 (+311.6%), versus Markov DDM at $21.39 (-7.4%). This +319.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About FMS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for FMS. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FMS is $67.88 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $85.89 on its own, implying +271.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FMS Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, FMS ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

Fresenius Medical Care AG operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is FMS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FMS a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Fresenius Medical Care AG. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Fresenius Medical Care AG earns a quality score of 7.3/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +319.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FMS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FMS's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Fresenius Medical Care AG Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

CONConcentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.QOC 7.5LFSTLifeStance Health Group, Inc.QOC 7.2DVADaVita Inc.QOC 7.5JYNTThe Joint Corp.QOC 7.2GRDNGuardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.QOC 7.6AUNAAuna SAQOC 7.2MCTACharming Medical LimitedQOC 6.1BMGLBasel Medical Group LtdQOC 4.8OPCHOption Care Health, Inc.QOC 8.4ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: CON · LFST · DVA · JYNT · GRDN · AUNA · MCTA · BMGL · OPCH · ADUS · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FMS?

7 companies across all industries closest to FMS’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

TDOCTeladoc Health, Inc.QOC 7.3GOGOGogo Inc.QOC 7.3AUBNAuburn National Bancorporation, Inc.QOC 7.3CPBThe Campbell's CompanyQOC 7.3CMRCCommerce.com, Inc.QOC 7.3TGTredegar CorporationQOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TDOC · GOGO · AUBN · CPB · CMRC · TG · NVDA

Where Does FMS Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

FMS is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Fresenius Medical Care AG’s Valuation?

What is Fresenius Medical Care AG's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS)'s intrinsic value at $67.88 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $21.39 to $95.08. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $85.89 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FMS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.10, 9 of 10 active models suggest FMS may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $67.88, 193.9% above the current price of $23.10 — a consensus view that FMS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Fresenius Medical Care AG's business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for FMS?

Fresenius Medical Care AG's QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FMS?

CirclFi analyzes FMS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FMS?

Of the 10 models currently active on FMS, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $95.08 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $21.39. CirclFi's published fair value for FMS is the median of that range, $67.88, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 109% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FMS a value trap in 2026?

Fresenius Medical Care AG's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) has a median fair value of $67.88 — 193.9% above the current price of $23.10 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FMS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FMS valuation
  • Financial statements: Fresenius Medical Care AG 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001333141) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FMS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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