Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) Fair Value 2026

FMS · Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) trades at $24.44, approximately 211% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $7.86. QOC: 2.0/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FMS
Price
$24.44
Quality Score
2.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +29.6% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$7.86 -67.8%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$11.57 -52.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$23.10 -5.5%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$31.67 +29.6%

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What Is Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Fresenius Medical Care AG presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $24.44. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $28.35 (+16.0% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 7 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $63.89 (+161.4%), versus Bayesian DCF at $7.86 (-67.8%). This +229.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About FMS?

13 of 13 models are currently active for FMS. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates FMS's intrinsic value at $7.86, implying -67.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FMS Rank in Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC?

Among 11 Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC stocks, FMS ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

Fresenius Medical Care AG operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is FMS a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for FMS. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Fresenius Medical Care AG. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Fresenius Medical Care AG earns a quality score of 2.0/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +229.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FMS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FMS's 13 active models, average confidence is 7%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Fresenius Medical Care AG Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: PGNY · SHC · VMD · DVA · CCEL

Frequently Asked Questions About Fresenius Medical Care AG

What is Fresenius Medical Care AG's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $7.86. The Quality of Company score is 2.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FMS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.44, 6 of 13 active models suggest FMS may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Fresenius Medical Care AG's business model in Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.0 mean for FMS?

Fresenius Medical Care AG's QOC of 2.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FMS?

CirclFi analyzes FMS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FMS a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for FMS at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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