Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Fair Value 2026

PTON · Leisure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) trades at $5.30, versus a $4.05 median fair value across its 10 active models — 23.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.48.

Key Facts

Ticker
PTON
Price
$5.30
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +7.2% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $4.05, 23.6% below the current price of $5.30. Estimates range from $0.44 to $6.54. PTON scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PTON’s -23.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Leisure sector median is -28.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Peloton Interactive, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PTON?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.30)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.48 -53.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $3.80 -28.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $5.68 +7.2%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $0.44 -91.7%
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What Is PTON's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $0.44 to $6.54

CirclFi's 10 active models place Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) between $0.44 and $6.54 per share, a spread of 151% of the median. The median of that range — $4.05 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PTON, against a current price of $5.30.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · FTNN
$0.44median $4.05$6.54
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.44
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$6.54
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PTON. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PTON, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Peloton Interactive, Inc. at its current price of $5.30. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $4.05 (-23.6% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $6.54 (+23.4%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $0.44 (-91.7%). This +115.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PTON?

10 of 13 models are currently active for PTON. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PTON is $4.05 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.48 on its own, implying -53.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PTON Rank in Leisure?

Among 37 Leisure stocks, PTON ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

Peloton Interactive, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is PTON a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PTON a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Peloton Interactive, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +115.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PTON valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PTON's 10 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Peloton Interactive, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Leisure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Leisure stocks with 13-model coverage

ESCAEscalade, IncorporatedQOC 7.8CALYCallaway Golf CompanyQOC 7.5LEATLeatt CorporationQOC 7.9JAKKJAKKS Pacific, Inc.QOC 7.5LTHLife Time Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9HASHasbro, Inc.QOC 7.2FUNSix Flags Entertainment CorporationQOC 6.3TRONTron Inc.QOC 4.9GOLFAcushnet Holdings Corp.QOC 8.9PLNTPlanet Fitness, Inc.QOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: ESCA · CALY · LEAT · JAKK · LTH · HAS · FUN · TRON · GOLF · PLNT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PTON?

7 companies across all industries closest to PTON’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

CDPCOPT Defense PropertiesQOC 7.8STLESteele Bancorp Inc.QOC 7.8FORMFormFactor, Inc.QOC 7.8SCHLScholastic CorporationQOC 7.8ANGIAngi Inc.QOC 7.8EYENational Vision Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CDP · STLE · FORM · SCHL · ANGI · EYE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Peloton Interactive, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON)'s intrinsic value at $4.05 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.44 to $6.54. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.48 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PTON overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.30, 3 of 10 active models suggest PTON may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $4.05, 23.6% below the current price of $5.30 — a consensus view that PTON is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s business model in Leisure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for PTON?

Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PTON?

CirclFi analyzes PTON with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PTON?

Of the 10 models currently active on PTON, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $6.54 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.44. CirclFi's published fair value for PTON is the median of that range, $4.05, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 151% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PTON a value trap in 2026?

Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) has a median fair value of $4.05 — 23.6% below the current price of $5.30 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PTON/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PTON valuation
  • Financial statements: Peloton Interactive, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001639825) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PTON as of ; valuations recomputed .

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