Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Fair Value 2026

ALK · Airlines ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) trades at $42.32, versus a $47.23 median fair value across its 11 active models — 11.6% above the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALK
Price
$42.32
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +303.9% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $47.23, 11.6% above the current price of $42.32. Estimates range from $2.43 to $170.94. ALK scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ALK’s +11.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Airlines sector median is +44.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alaska Air Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALK?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($42.32)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $52.48 +24.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $170.94 +303.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.43 -94.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.38 -77.8%
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What Is ALK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $2.43 to $170.94

CirclFi's 11 active models place Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) between $2.43 and $170.94 per share, a spread of 357% of the median. The median of that range — $47.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALK, against a current price of $42.32.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$2.43median $47.23$170.94
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$2.43
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$170.94
Model agreement7 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Alaska Air Group, Inc. at $42.32. With an estimated intrinsic value of $47.23 and 7 of 11 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +11.6%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $170.94 (+303.9%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $2.43 (-94.2%). This +398.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ALK?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ALK. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ALK is $47.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALK Rank in Airlines?

Among 17 Airlines stocks, ALK ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places ALK in the top tier.

The Airlines sector introduces analytical considerations specific to automotive businesses. For Alaska Air Group, Inc., metrics like inventory days supply provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ALK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALK a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Alaska Air Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Alaska Air Group, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.3/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +398.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALK's 11 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alaska Air Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Airlines Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Airlines stocks with 13-model coverage

SKYWSkyWest, Inc.QOC 8.5LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A.QOC 8.3UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.QOC 8.0DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.QOC 8.9CPACopa Holdings, S.A.QOC 7.9ALGTAllegiant Travel CompanyQOC 7.6ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5AEROGrupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.VQOC 5.1

Read investment analysis: SKYW · LTM · UAL · LUV · DAL · CPA · ALGT · ULCC · AERO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALK?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALK’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

JCIJohnson Controls International plcQOC 8.3PLBCPlumas BancorpQOC 8.3EQIXEquinix, Inc.QOC 8.3OSWOneSpaWorld Holdings LimitedQOC 8.3DFINDonnelley Financial Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.3RLXRLX Technology Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: JCI · PLBC · EQIX · OSW · DFIN · RLX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alaska Air Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)'s intrinsic value at $47.23 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.43 to $170.94. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $42.32, 7 of 11 active models suggest ALK may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $47.23, 11.6% above the current price of $42.32 — a consensus view that ALK is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s business model in Airlines.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for ALK?

Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALK?

CirclFi analyzes ALK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALK?

Of the 11 models currently active on ALK, First Chicago is the most bullish at $170.94 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $2.43. CirclFi's published fair value for ALK is the median of that range, $47.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 357% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALK a value trap in 2026?

Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) has a median fair value of $47.23 — 11.6% above the current price of $42.32 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALK valuation
  • Financial statements: Alaska Air Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000766421) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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