LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) Fair Value 2026

LTM · Airlines ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) trades at $49.77, versus a $91.69 median fair value across its 8 active models — 84.2% above the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $74.66.

Key Facts

Ticker
LTM
Price
$49.77
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +319.5% upside with 49% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $91.69, 84.2% above the current price of $49.77. Estimates range from $48.87 to $208.79. LTM scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. LTM’s +84.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Airlines sector median is +40.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy LATAM Airlines Group S.A. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LTM?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($49.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $74.66 +50.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $92.72 +86.3%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $208.79 +319.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $122.01 +145.1%
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What Is LTM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $48.87 to $208.79

CirclFi's 8 active models place LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) between $48.87 and $208.79 per share, a spread of 174% of the median. The median of that range — $91.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LTM, against a current price of $49.77.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$48.87median $91.69$208.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$48.87
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$208.79
Model agreement7 bullish · 0 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LTM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LTM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for LATAM Airlines Group S.A.. Trading at $49.77 against an estimated intrinsic value of $91.69, 7 of 8 active models flag meaningful upside of +84.2% at the median. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $208.79 (+319.5%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $48.87 (-1.8%). This +321.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about LATAM Airlines Group S.A.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About LTM?

8 of 13 models are currently active for LTM. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LTM is $91.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $74.66 on its own, implying +50.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LTM Rank in Airlines?

Among 17 Airlines stocks, LTM ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places LTM in the top tier.

As a automotive sector, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. operates in a sector where EV mix percentage is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating LTM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is LTM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LTM a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for LATAM Airlines Group S.A.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is rated at 8.3/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +321.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LTM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LTM's 8 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LATAM Airlines Group S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Airlines Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Airlines stocks with 13-model coverage

ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.QOC 8.3LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.QOC 8.0SKYWSkyWest, Inc.QOC 8.5CPACopa Holdings, S.A.QOC 7.9UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8ALGTAllegiant Travel CompanyQOC 7.6JBLUJetBlue Airways CorporationQOC 7.4VLRSControladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 6.5SRFMSurf Air Mobility Inc.QOC 4.6DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: ALK · LUV · SKYW · CPA · UAL · ALGT · JBLU · VLRS · SRFM · DAL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LTM?

7 companies across all industries closest to LTM’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

CRCrane CompanyQOC 8.3AZOAutoZone, Inc.QOC 8.3TSSITSS, Inc.QOC 8.3COFSChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc.QOC 8.3LPGDorian LPG Ltd.QOC 8.3BHEBenchmark Electronics, Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CR · AZO · TSSI · COFS · LPG · BHE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About LATAM Airlines Group S.A.’s Valuation?

What is LATAM Airlines Group S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM)'s intrinsic value at $91.69 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $48.87 to $208.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $74.66 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LTM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $49.77, 7 of 8 active models suggest LTM may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $91.69, 84.2% above the current price of $49.77 — a consensus view that LTM is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LATAM Airlines Group S.A.'s business model in Airlines.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for LTM?

LATAM Airlines Group S.A.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LTM?

CirclFi analyzes LTM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LTM?

Of the 8 models currently active on LTM, First Chicago is the most bullish at $208.79 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $48.87. CirclFi's published fair value for LTM is the median of that range, $91.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 174% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LTM a value trap in 2026?

LATAM Airlines Group S.A.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) has a median fair value of $91.69 — 84.2% above the current price of $49.77 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LTM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LTM valuation
  • Financial statements: LATAM Airlines Group S.A. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001047716) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LTM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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