LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) Fair Value 2026

LTM · Air Transportation, Scheduled ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-17, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) trades at $53.18, approximately 293% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $13.54. QOC: 2.0/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LTM
Price
$53.18
Quality Score
2.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +306.5% upside with 9% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $56.90, within 7.0% of the current price of $53.18. Estimates range from $1.93 to $268.87. LTM scores 2.0/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy LATAM Airlines Group S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($53.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $13.54 -74.5%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $19.32 -63.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $33.41 -37.2%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $216.18 +306.5%

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What Is LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LATAM Airlines Group S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $79.41, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $53.18. While the average implied return is +49.3%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +502.0% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $268.87 (+405.6%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $1.93 (-96.4%). This +502.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about LATAM Airlines Group S.A.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About LTM?

13 of 13 models are currently active for LTM. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates LTM's intrinsic value at $13.54, implying -74.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LTM Rank in Air Transportation, Scheduled?

Among 12 Air Transportation, Scheduled stocks, LTM ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

As a automotive sector, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. operates in a sector where EV mix percentage is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating LTM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is LTM a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for LTM. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for LATAM Airlines Group S.A.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is rated at 2.0/10. This weak-tier score exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +502.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LTM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LTM's 13 active models, average confidence is 9%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LATAM Airlines Group S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Air Transportation, Scheduled Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Air Transportation, Scheduled stocks with 13-model coverage

CPACopa Holdings, S.A.QOC 9.0RYAAYRyanair Holdings plcQOC 8.8UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.7DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.QOC 8.4SKYWSkyWest, Inc.QOC 8.1LUVSouthwest Airlines CompanyQOC 7.5RJETRepublic Airways Holdings Inc.QOC 7.1JBLUJetBlue Airways CorporationQOC 7.0

Read investment analysis: CPA · RYAAY · UAL · DAL · SKYW

Frequently Asked Questions About LATAM Airlines Group S.A.

What is LATAM Airlines Group S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $13.54. The Quality of Company score is 2.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LTM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $53.18, 7 of 13 active models suggest LTM may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $56.90, within 7.0% of the current price of $53.18 — a consensus view that LTM is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LATAM Airlines Group S.A.'s business model in Air Transportation, Scheduled.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.0 mean for LTM?

LATAM Airlines Group S.A.'s QOC of 2.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LTM?

CirclFi analyzes LTM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is LTM a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for LTM at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) has a median fair value of $56.90 — within 7.0% of the current price of $53.18 — as of 2026-07-17.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LTM/ · Methodology

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