Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) Fair Value 2026

SRFM · Air Transportation, Nonscheduled ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) trades at $0.86, approximately 2097% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.04. QOC: 5.7/10. 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SRFM
Price
$0.86
Quality Score
5.7/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +37.7% upside with 12% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$0.04 -95.4%
Earnings Power Value
Low Conviction
$0.43 -50.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.19 +37.7%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 4 additional models including ML-RIV, PWERM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 7 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Surf Air Mobility Inc. at $0.86. With an estimated intrinsic value of $0.78 and 4 of 7 models pointing higher, the average implied return is -9.7%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $1.56 (+81.1%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.04 (-95.4%). This +176.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Surf Air Mobility Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SRFM?

7 of 13 models are currently active for SRFM. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SRFM's intrinsic value at $0.04, implying -95.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SRFM Rank in Air Transportation, Nonscheduled?

Among 6 Air Transportation, Nonscheduled stocks, SRFM ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

The Air Transportation, Nonscheduled sector introduces analytical considerations specific to automotive businesses. For Surf Air Mobility Inc., metrics like EV mix percentage provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SRFM a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for SRFM. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Surf Air Mobility Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Surf Air Mobility Inc. scores 5.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +176.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SRFM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SRFM's 7 active models, average confidence is 17%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Surf Air Mobility Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Air Transportation, Nonscheduled Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related Air Transportation, Nonscheduled stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: VTOL · FLYX · UP · JTAI · SOAR

Frequently Asked Questions About Surf Air Mobility Inc.

What is Surf Air Mobility Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.04. The Quality of Company score is 5.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SRFM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.86, 4 of 7 active models suggest SRFM may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Surf Air Mobility Inc.'s business model in Air Transportation, Nonscheduled.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.7 mean for SRFM?

Surf Air Mobility Inc.'s QOC of 5.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SRFM?

CirclFi analyzes SRFM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SRFM a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for SRFM at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 7 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on SRFM.

Unlock All 7 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access