Twin Disc, Incorporated (TWIN) Fair Value 2026

TWIN · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Twin Disc, Incorporated (TWIN) trades at $23.36, versus a $17.03 median fair value across its 10 active models — 27.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.78.

Key Facts

Ticker
TWIN
Price
$23.36
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +134.1% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Twin Disc, Incorporated (TWIN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Twin Disc, Incorporated (TWIN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $17.03, 27.1% below the current price of $23.36. Estimates range from $3.78 to $54.68. TWIN scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TWIN’s -27.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Twin Disc, Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TWIN?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.36)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.78 -83.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.56 -24.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $54.68 +134.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.98 -57.3%
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What Is TWIN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $3.78 to $54.68

CirclFi's 10 active models place Twin Disc, Incorporated (TWIN) between $3.78 and $54.68 per share, a spread of 299% of the median. The median of that range — $17.03 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TWIN, against a current price of $23.36.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$3.78median $17.03$54.68
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$3.78
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$54.68
Model agreement4 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TWIN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TWIN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Twin Disc, Incorporated (TWIN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Twin Disc, Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $17.03. Trading at $23.36, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -27.1%), as 6 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +134.1% (fair value: $54.68), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -83.8% ($3.78). The spread between these extremes — +217.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TWIN?

10 of 13 models are currently active for TWIN. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TWIN is $17.03 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.78 on its own, implying -83.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TWIN Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, TWIN ranks #45 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

Twin Disc, Incorporated's positioning within the Specialty Industrial Machinery segment means that book-to-bill ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electrification tailwinds — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TWIN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TWIN a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Twin Disc, Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Twin Disc, Incorporated earns a quality score of 7.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +217.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TWIN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TWIN's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Twin Disc, Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

MIRMirion Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.6LXFRLuxfer Holdings PLCQOC 7.4JBTMJBT Marel CorporationQOC 7.6SYMSymbotic Inc.QOC 7.3JCSEJE Cleantech Holdings LimitedQOC 7.7MIDDThe Middleby CorporationQOC 7.3HYORHyOrc CorporationQOC 4.7PHParker-Hannifin CorporationQOC 9.3CSWCSW Industrials, Inc.QOC 8.6EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: MIR · LXFR · JBTM · SYM · JCSE · MIDD · HYOR · PH · CSW · EPAC · WTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TWIN?

7 companies across all industries closest to TWIN’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

FSBWFS Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5DVADaVita Inc.QOC 7.5MICCThe Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V.QOC 7.5MURMurphy Oil CorporationQOC 7.5SIBNSI-BONE, Inc.QOC 7.5ARKOArko Corp.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FSBW · DVA · MICC · MUR · SIBN · ARKO · NVDA

Where Does TWIN Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

TWIN is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Twin Disc, Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is Twin Disc, Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Twin Disc, Incorporated (TWIN)'s intrinsic value at $17.03 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.78 to $54.68. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.78 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TWIN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.36, 4 of 10 active models suggest TWIN may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $17.03, 27.1% below the current price of $23.36 — a consensus view that TWIN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Twin Disc, Incorporated's business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for TWIN?

Twin Disc, Incorporated's QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TWIN?

CirclFi analyzes TWIN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TWIN?

Of the 10 models currently active on TWIN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $54.68 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $3.78. CirclFi's published fair value for TWIN is the median of that range, $17.03, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 299% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TWIN a value trap in 2026?

Twin Disc, Incorporated's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Twin Disc, Incorporated (TWIN) has a median fair value of $17.03 — 27.1% below the current price of $23.36 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TWIN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TWIN valuation
  • Financial statements: Twin Disc, Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000100378) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TWIN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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