Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. (GTES) Fair Value 2026

GTES · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. (GTES) trades at $26.38, versus a $18.08 median fair value across its 12 active models — 31.5% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $16.11.

Key Facts

Ticker
GTES
Price
$26.38
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +126.6% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. (GTES) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. (GTES) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $18.08, 31.5% below the current price of $26.38. Estimates range from $2.09 to $64.28. GTES scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GTES’s -31.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GTES?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($26.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.11 -38.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.15 -80.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $19.93 -24.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $59.78 +126.6%
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What Is GTES's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $2.09 to $64.28

CirclFi's 12 active models place Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. (GTES) between $2.09 and $64.28 per share, a spread of 344% of the median. The median of that range — $18.08 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GTES, against a current price of $26.38.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$2.09median $18.08$64.28
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$2.09
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$64.28
Model agreement4 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GTES. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GTES, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. (GTES) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. at its current price of $26.38. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $18.08 (-31.5% vs price), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +143.7% (fair value: $64.28), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -92.1% ($2.09). The spread between these extremes — +235.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GTES?

12 of 13 models are currently active for GTES. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GTES is $18.08 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $16.11 on its own, implying -38.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GTES Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, GTES ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places GTES in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

As a manufacturing company, Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. operates in a sector where book-to-bill ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating GTES should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is GTES a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GTES a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.0/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +235.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GTES valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GTES's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

AOSA. O. Smith CorporationQOC 9.0GHMGraham CorporationQOC 9.0GGGGraco Inc.QOC 9.1AMEAMETEK, Inc.QOC 8.9NDSNNordson CorporationQOC 9.1PNRPentair plcQOC 8.9RRXRegal Rexnord CorporationQOC 8.4NNENANO Nuclear Energy Inc.QOC 6.1MFPMidera Food Processing, Inc.QOC 4.3EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: AOS · GHM · GGG · AME · NDSN · PNR · RRX · NNE · MFP · EPAC · WTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GTES?

7 companies across all industries closest to GTES’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

QNSTQuinStreet, Inc.QOC 9.0IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc.QOC 9.0OKTAOkta, Inc.QOC 9.0JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc.QOC 9.0INSPInspire Medical Systems, Inc.QOC 9.0GGenpact LimitedQOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: QNST · IBKR · OKTA · JKHY · INSP · G · NVDA

Where Does GTES Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

GTES is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. (GTES)'s intrinsic value at $18.08 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.09 to $64.28. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $16.11 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GTES overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $26.38, 4 of 12 active models suggest GTES may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $18.08, 31.5% below the current price of $26.38 — a consensus view that GTES is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd.'s business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for GTES?

Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GTES?

CirclFi analyzes GTES with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GTES?

Of the 12 models currently active on GTES, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $64.28 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $2.09. CirclFi's published fair value for GTES is the median of that range, $18.08, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 344% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GTES a value trap in 2026?

Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. (GTES) has a median fair value of $18.08 — 31.5% below the current price of $26.38 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GTES/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GTES valuation
  • Financial statements: Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001718512) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GTES as of ; valuations recomputed .

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