Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Fair Value 2026

CHA · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) trades at $10.35, versus a $21.29 median fair value across its 10 active models — 105.7% above the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $15.29.

Key Facts

Ticker
CHA
Price
$10.35
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +348.0% upside with 44% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $21.29, 105.7% above the current price of $10.35. Estimates range from $4.63 to $46.36. CHA scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CHA’s +105.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -18.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Chagee Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CHA?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.29 +47.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $21.40 +106.8%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $31.62 +205.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $46.36 +348.0%
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What Is CHA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $4.63 to $46.36

CirclFi's 10 active models place Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) between $4.63 and $46.36 per share, a spread of 196% of the median. The median of that range — $21.29 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CHA, against a current price of $10.35.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Markov DDM
$4.63median $21.29$46.36
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$4.63
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$46.36
Model agreement7 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CHA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CHA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Chagee Holdings Limited at $10.35. With an estimated intrinsic value of $21.29 and 7 of 10 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +105.7%. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $46.36 (+348.0%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $4.63 (-55.3%). This +403.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Chagee Holdings Limited's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CHA?

10 of 13 models are currently active for CHA. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CHA is $21.29 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $15.29 on its own, implying +47.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CHA Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, CHA ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places CHA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

The Restaurants sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer businesses. For Chagee Holdings Limited, metrics like store traffic trends provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is CHA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CHA a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Chagee Holdings Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Chagee Holdings Limited earns a quality score of 8.3/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +403.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CHA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CHA's 10 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Chagee Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

MCDMcDonald's CorporationQOC 8.3BJRIBJ's Restaurants, Inc.QOC 8.3NATHNathan's Famous, Inc.QOC 8.4DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc.QOC 8.2ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.QOC 8.5YUMYum! Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2SBUXStarbucks CorporationQOC 7.4SGSweetgreen, Inc.QOC 5.9CCHHCCH Holdings LtdQOC 2.8EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: MCD · BJRI · NATH · DPZ · ARCO · YUM · SBUX · SG · CCHH · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CHA?

7 companies across all industries closest to CHA’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

IIINInsteel Industries Inc.QOC 8.3TSSITSS, Inc.QOC 8.3MKTXMarketAxess Holdings Inc.QOC 8.3CRCrane CompanyQOC 8.3PSXPhillips 66QOC 8.3LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IIIN · TSSI · MKTX · CR · PSX · LTM · NVDA

Where Does CHA Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

CHA is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Chagee Holdings Limited’s Valuation?

What is Chagee Holdings Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)'s intrinsic value at $21.29 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $4.63 to $46.36. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $15.29 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CHA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.35, 7 of 10 active models suggest CHA may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $21.29, 105.7% above the current price of $10.35 — a consensus view that CHA is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Chagee Holdings Limited's business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for CHA?

Chagee Holdings Limited's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CHA?

CirclFi analyzes CHA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CHA?

Of the 10 models currently active on CHA, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $46.36 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $4.63. CirclFi's published fair value for CHA is the median of that range, $21.29, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 196% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CHA a value trap in 2026?

Chagee Holdings Limited's Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) has a median fair value of $21.29 — 105.7% above the current price of $10.35 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CHA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CHA valuation
  • Financial statements: Chagee Holdings Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002013649) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CHA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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