PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) Fair Value 2026

PRG · Rental & Leasing Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) trades at $39.65, versus a $41.15 median fair value across its 12 active models — 3.8% above the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $38.84.

Key Facts

Ticker
PRG
Price
$39.65
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +178.7% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $41.15, within 3.8% of the current price of $39.65. Estimates range from $13.66 to $110.51. PRG scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PRG’s +3.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Rental & Leasing Services sector median is +2.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy PROG Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PRG?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.65)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.84 -2.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.23 -64.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $43.46 +9.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $110.51 +178.7%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is PRG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $13.66 to $110.51

CirclFi's 12 active models place PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) between $13.66 and $110.51 per share, a spread of 235% of the median. The median of that range — $41.15 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PRG, against a current price of $39.65.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$13.66median $41.15$110.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$13.66
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$110.51
Model agreement6 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PRG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PRG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, PROG Holdings, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $39.65. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $41.15 (+3.8% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $110.51 (+178.7%), versus Markov DDM at $13.66 (-65.5%). This +244.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PRG?

12 of 13 models are currently active for PRG. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PRG is $41.15 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $38.84 on its own, implying -2.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PRG Rank in Rental & Leasing Services?

Among 23 Rental & Leasing Services stocks, PRG ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

PROG Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is PRG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PRG a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for PROG Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, PROG Holdings, Inc. is rated at 7.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +244.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PRG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PRG's 12 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy PROG Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Rental & Leasing Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Rental & Leasing Services stocks with 13-model coverage

WLFCWillis Lease Finance CorporationQOC 8.2SUNBSunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5AERAerCap Holdings N.V.QOC 8.2RRyder System, Inc.QOC 7.2GATXGATX CorporationQOC 8.2EQPTEquipmentShare.com Inc.QOC 7.1HRIHerc Holdings Inc.QOC 6.9LIMENeutron Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.7MWGMulti Ways Holdings LimitedQOC 2.7URIUnited Rentals, Inc.QOC 8.6MGRCMcGrath RentCorpQOC 8.3

Read investment analysis: WLFC · SUNB · AER · R · GATX · EQPT · HRI · LIME · MWG · URI · MGRC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PRG?

7 companies across all industries closest to PRG’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

LPLALPL Financial Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6GBLIGlobal Indemnity Group, LLCQOC 7.6SUZSuzano S.A.QOC 7.6TWFGTWFG, Inc.QOC 7.6KVUEKenvue Inc.QOC 7.6AERAAI Era Corp.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LPLA · GBLI · SUZ · TWFG · KVUE · AERA · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About PROG Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is PROG Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG)'s intrinsic value at $41.15 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $13.66 to $110.51. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $38.84 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PRG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.65, 6 of 12 active models suggest PRG may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $41.15, within 3.8% of the current price of $39.65 — a consensus view that PRG is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits PROG Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Rental & Leasing Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for PRG?

PROG Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PRG?

CirclFi analyzes PRG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PRG?

Of the 12 models currently active on PRG, First Chicago is the most bullish at $110.51 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $13.66. CirclFi's published fair value for PRG is the median of that range, $41.15, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 235% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PRG a value trap in 2026?

PROG Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) has a median fair value of $41.15 — within 3.8% of the current price of $39.65 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PRG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PRG valuation
  • Financial statements: PROG Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001808834) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PRG as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on PRG.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

8 models hidden for PRG Unlock All 12 — $39/mo