Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) Fair Value 2026

HRI · Rental & Leasing Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) trades at $150.60, versus a $186.81 median fair value across its 8 active models — 24.0% above the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $334.67.

Key Facts

Ticker
HRI
Price
$150.60
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +122.2% upside with 68% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $186.81, 24.0% above the current price of $150.60. Estimates range from $15.90 to $334.67. HRI scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HRI’s +24.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Rental & Leasing Services sector median is +5.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Herc Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HRI?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($150.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $334.67 +122.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $159.31 +5.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.10 -86.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.90 -89.4%
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What Is HRI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $15.90 to $334.67

CirclFi's 8 active models place Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) between $15.90 and $334.67 per share, a spread of 171% of the median. The median of that range — $186.81 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HRI, against a current price of $150.60.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$15.90median $186.81$334.67
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$15.90
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$334.67
Model agreement5 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HRI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HRI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Herc Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $186.81, suggesting a +24.0% median upside from the current price of $150.60. While 5 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $334.67 (+122.2%), versus ML-RIV at $15.90 (-89.4%). This +211.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HRI?

8 of 13 models are currently active for HRI. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HRI is $186.81 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $334.67 on its own, implying +122.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HRI Rank in Rental & Leasing Services?

Among 23 Rental & Leasing Services stocks, HRI ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

Herc Holdings Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HRI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HRI a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Herc Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Herc Holdings Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.9/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +211.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HRI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HRI's 8 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Herc Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Rental & Leasing Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Rental & Leasing Services stocks with 13-model coverage

CTOSCustom Truck One Source, Inc.QOC 7.0HTZHertz Global Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6EQPTEquipmentShare.com Inc.QOC 7.1UHALU-Haul Holding CompanyQOC 6.5RRyder System, Inc.QOC 7.2WSCWillScot Holdings CorporationQOC 6.4ALTGAlta Equipment Group Inc.QOC 6.3AIHSSenmiao Technology LimitedQOC 4.1WLFCWillis Lease Finance CorporationQOC 8.2URIUnited Rentals, Inc.QOC 8.6MGRCMcGrath RentCorpQOC 8.3

Read investment analysis: CTOS · HTZ · EQPT · UHAL · R · WSC · ALTG · AIHS · WLFC · URI · MGRC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HRI?

7 companies across all industries closest to HRI’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

PCSVPCS Edventures!, Inc.QOC 6.9MQMarqeta, Inc.QOC 6.9CTKBCytek Biosciences, Inc.QOC 6.9GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 6.9CAVACAVA Group, Inc.QOC 6.9HBNCHorizon Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PCSV · MQ · CTKB · GLAD · CAVA · HBNC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Herc Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Herc Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI)'s intrinsic value at $186.81 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $15.90 to $334.67. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $334.67 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HRI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $150.60, 5 of 8 active models suggest HRI may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $186.81, 24.0% above the current price of $150.60 — a consensus view that HRI is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Herc Holdings Inc.'s business model in Rental & Leasing Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for HRI?

Herc Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HRI?

CirclFi analyzes HRI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HRI?

Of the 8 models currently active on HRI, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $334.67 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $15.90. CirclFi's published fair value for HRI is the median of that range, $186.81, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 171% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HRI a value trap in 2026?

Herc Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) has a median fair value of $186.81 — 24.0% above the current price of $150.60 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HRI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HRI valuation
  • Financial statements: Herc Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001364479) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HRI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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