NPK International Inc. (NPKI) Fair Value 2026

NPKI · Building Products & Equipment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, NPK International Inc. (NPKI) trades at $13.16, versus a $4.21 median fair value across its 11 active models — 68.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.28.

Key Facts

Ticker
NPKI
Price
$13.16
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is NPK International Inc. (NPKI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, NPK International Inc. (NPKI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $4.21, 68.0% below the current price of $13.16. Estimates range from $0.59 to $17.49. NPKI scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NPKI’s -68.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Building Products & Equipment sector median is -32.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NPK International Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NPKI?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.16)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.28 -90.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.59 -95.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.63 -64.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $9.72 -26.1%
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What Is NPKI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $0.59 to $17.49

CirclFi's 11 active models place NPK International Inc. (NPKI) between $0.59 and $17.49 per share, a spread of 402% of the median. The median of that range — $4.21 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NPKI, against a current price of $13.16.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.59median $4.21$17.49
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$0.59
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$17.49
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NPKI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NPKI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NPK International Inc. (NPKI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NPK International Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $4.21. Trading at its current price of $13.16, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -68.0%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $17.49 (+32.9%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $0.59 (-95.5%). This +128.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about NPK International Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NPKI?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NPKI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NPKI is $4.21 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.28 on its own, implying -90.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NPKI Rank in Building Products & Equipment?

Among 39 Building Products & Equipment stocks, NPKI ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

NPK International Inc.'s positioning within the Building Products & Equipment segment means that book-to-bill ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including aftermarket and services growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NPKI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NPKI a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for NPK International Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, NPK International Inc. earns a quality score of 7.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +128.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NPKI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NPKI's 11 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NPK International Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Building Products & Equipment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Building Products & Equipment stocks with 13-model coverage

APOGApogee Enterprises, Inc.QOC 7.8ROCKGibraltar Industries, Inc.QOC 7.7JBIJanus International Group, Inc.QOC 7.9JLHLJulong Holding LimitedQOC 7.6AAONAAON, Inc.QOC 8.0CARRCarrier Global CorporationQOC 7.5FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc.QOC 7.3MAIRMadison Air Solutions CorporationQOC 4.8LMBLimbach Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8TTTrane Technologies plcQOC 9.4LIILennox International Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: APOG · ROCK · JBI · JLHL · AAON · CARR · FBIN · MAIR · LMB · TT · LII

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NPKI?

7 companies across all industries closest to NPKI’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

MMacy's, Inc.QOC 7.8BYDBoyd Gaming CorporationQOC 7.8DUKDuke Energy CorporationQOC 7.8CBFVCB Financial Services, Inc.QOC 7.8FMBMF & M Bank Corp.QOC 7.8MBCMasterBrand, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: M · BYD · DUK · CBFV · FMBM · MBC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About NPK International Inc.’s Valuation?

What is NPK International Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NPK International Inc. (NPKI)'s intrinsic value at $4.21 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.59 to $17.49. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.28 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NPKI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.16, 1 of 11 active models suggest NPKI may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $4.21, 68.0% below the current price of $13.16 — a consensus view that NPKI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NPK International Inc.'s business model in Building Products & Equipment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for NPKI?

NPK International Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NPKI?

CirclFi analyzes NPKI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NPKI?

Of the 11 models currently active on NPKI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $17.49 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $0.59. CirclFi's published fair value for NPKI is the median of that range, $4.21, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 402% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NPKI a value trap in 2026?

NPK International Inc.'s Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, NPK International Inc. (NPKI) has a median fair value of $4.21 — 68.0% below the current price of $13.16 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NPKI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NPKI valuation
  • Financial statements: NPK International Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000071829) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NPKI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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