U.S. Bancorp (USB) Fair Value 2026

USB · National Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, U.S. Bancorp (USB) trades at $63.03, approximately 2% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $61.52. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
USB
Price
$63.03
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +4.7% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is U.S. Bancorp (USB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, U.S. Bancorp (USB) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $57.95, within 8.1% of the current price of $63.03. Estimates range from $25.20 to $257.39. USB scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy U.S. Bancorp Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($63.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $61.52 -2.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $27.53 -56.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $50.01 -20.7%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $66.03 +4.7%

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What Is U.S. Bancorp (USB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, U.S. Bancorp's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $75.14, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $63.04. While the average implied return is +19.2%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +368.3% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $257.39 (+308.3%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $25.20 (-60.0%). This +368.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about U.S. Bancorp's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About USB?

13 of 13 models are currently active for USB. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates USB's intrinsic value at $61.52, implying -2.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does USB Rank in National Commercial Banks?

Among 88 National Commercial Banks stocks, USB ranks #70 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued National Commercial Banks Stocks →

The National Commercial Banks sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For U.S. Bancorp, metrics like deposit growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is USB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns USB a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for U.S. Bancorp. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, U.S. Bancorp earns a quality score of 6.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +368.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every USB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across USB's 13 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy U.S. Bancorp Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar National Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related National Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

CBNAChain Bridge Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.6CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.QOC 9.6SHBIShore Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.6WABCWestamerica BancorporationQOC 9.4FSUNFirstSun Capital BancorpQOC 9.3CASHPathward Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3FUNCFirstQOC 9.1CHCOCity Holding CompanyQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CBNA · CARE · SHBI · WABC · FSUN

See all National Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About U.S. Bancorp

What is U.S. Bancorp's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, U.S. Bancorp (USB) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $61.52. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is USB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $63.03, 4 of 13 active models suggest USB may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $57.95, within 8.1% of the current price of $63.03 — a consensus view that USB is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits U.S. Bancorp's business model in National Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for USB?

U.S. Bancorp's QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on USB?

CirclFi analyzes USB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is USB a value trap in 2026?

U.S. Bancorp's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, U.S. Bancorp (USB) has a median fair value of $57.95 — within 8.1% of the current price of $63.03 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/USB/ · Methodology

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