First (FUNC) Fair Value 2026

FUNC · National Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, First (FUNC) trades at $44.89, approximately 67% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $135.83. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FUNC
Price
$44.89
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +202.6% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($44.89)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $135.83 +202.6%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $31.47 -29.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $66.91 +49.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $65.38 +45.6%

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What Is First (FUNC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on First at $44.89. With an estimated intrinsic value of $69.65 and 7 of 12 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +55.2%. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $146.85 (+227.1%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $31.47 (-29.9%). This +257.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about First's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About FUNC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for FUNC. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates FUNC's intrinsic value at $135.83, implying +202.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FUNC Rank in National Commercial Banks?

Among 90 National Commercial Banks stocks, FUNC ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places FUNC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued National Commercial Banks Stocks →

First's positioning within the National Commercial Banks segment means that net interest margin (NIM) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including loan portfolio growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is FUNC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FUNC a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for First. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, First earns a quality score of 9.1/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +257.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FUNC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FUNC's 12 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy First Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar National Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related National Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

CBNAChain Bridge Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.6CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.QOC 9.6SHBIShore Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.6WABCWestamerica BancorporationQOC 9.4FSUNFirstSun Capital BancorpQOC 9.3CASHPathward Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3CHCOCity Holding CompanyQOC 9.1BFCBank First CorporationQOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: CBNA · CARE · SHBI · WABC · FSUN

See all National Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About First

What is First's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, First (FUNC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $135.83. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FUNC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $44.89, 7 of 12 active models suggest FUNC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits First's business model in National Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for FUNC?

First's QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FUNC?

CirclFi analyzes FUNC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FUNC a value trap in 2026?

First's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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