Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK) Fair Value 2026

ROCK · Building Products & Equipment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK) trades at $45.85, versus a $28.18 median fair value across its 11 active models — 38.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.35.

Key Facts

Ticker
ROCK
Price
$45.85
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +108.1% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $28.18, 38.5% below the current price of $45.85. Estimates range from $1.35 to $176.33. ROCK scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ROCK’s -38.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Building Products & Equipment sector median is -32.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Gibraltar Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ROCK?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($45.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.35 -97.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $34.05 -25.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $95.42 +108.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.24 -82.0%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ROCK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $1.35 to $176.33

CirclFi's 11 active models place Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK) between $1.35 and $176.33 per share, a spread of 621% of the median. The median of that range — $28.18 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ROCK, against a current price of $45.85.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$1.35median $28.18$176.33
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$1.35
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$176.33
Model agreement4 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ROCK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ROCK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Gibraltar Industries, Inc. at its current price of $45.85. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $28.18 (-38.5% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $176.33 (+284.6%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $1.35 (-97.1%). This +381.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Gibraltar Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ROCK?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ROCK. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ROCK is $28.18 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.35 on its own, implying -97.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ROCK Rank in Building Products & Equipment?

Among 38 Building Products & Equipment stocks, ROCK ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Building Products & Equipment space, Gibraltar Industries, Inc. competes in an environment where book-to-bill ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ROCK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ROCK a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Gibraltar Industries, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Gibraltar Industries, Inc. is rated at 7.7/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +381.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ROCK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ROCK's 11 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Gibraltar Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Building Products & Equipment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Building Products & Equipment stocks with 13-model coverage

NPKINPK International Inc.QOC 7.8JLHLJulong Holding LimitedQOC 7.6APOGApogee Enterprises, Inc.QOC 7.8CARRCarrier Global CorporationQOC 7.5JBIJanus International Group, Inc.QOC 7.9PPIHPerma-Pipe International Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5OCOwens CorningQOC 7.2EVOHEvoAir Holdings Inc.QOC 4.4WMSAdvanced Drainage Systems, Inc.QOC 8.7TTTrane Technologies plcQOC 9.4LIILennox International Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: NPKI · JLHL · APOG · CARR · JBI · PPIH · OC · EVOH · WMS · TT · LII

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ROCK?

7 companies across all industries closest to ROCK’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

VLYValley National BancorpQOC 7.7ARCBArcBest CorporationQOC 7.7SPFXStandard Premium Finance Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7MDLNMedline Inc.QOC 7.7PFBXPeoples Financial CorporationQOC 7.7DBDDiebold Nixdorf, IncorporatedQOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VLY · ARCB · SPFX · MDLN · PFBX · DBD · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Gibraltar Industries, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Gibraltar Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK)'s intrinsic value at $28.18 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.35 to $176.33. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.35 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ROCK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $45.85, 4 of 11 active models suggest ROCK may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $28.18, 38.5% below the current price of $45.85 — a consensus view that ROCK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Gibraltar Industries, Inc.'s business model in Building Products & Equipment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for ROCK?

Gibraltar Industries, Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ROCK?

CirclFi analyzes ROCK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ROCK?

Of the 11 models currently active on ROCK, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $176.33 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $1.35. CirclFi's published fair value for ROCK is the median of that range, $28.18, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 621% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ROCK a value trap in 2026?

Gibraltar Industries, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK) has a median fair value of $28.18 — 38.5% below the current price of $45.85 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ROCK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ROCK valuation
  • Financial statements: Gibraltar Industries, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000912562) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ROCK as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ROCK.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for ROCK Unlock All 11 — $39/mo