Owens Corning (OC) Fair Value 2026

OC · Building Products & Equipment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Owens Corning (OC) trades at $143.13, versus a $169.38 median fair value across its 10 active models — 18.3% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $221.40.

Key Facts

Ticker
OC
Price
$143.13
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +153.1% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Owens Corning (OC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Owens Corning (OC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $169.38, 18.3% above the current price of $143.13. Estimates range from $95.64 to $402.48. OC scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. OC’s +18.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Building Products & Equipment sector median is -32.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Owens Corning Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OC?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($143.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $221.40 +54.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $129.64 -9.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $179.33 +25.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $362.24 +153.1%
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What Is OC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $95.64 to $402.48

CirclFi's 10 active models place Owens Corning (OC) between $95.64 and $402.48 per share, a spread of 181% of the median. The median of that range — $169.38 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OC, against a current price of $143.13.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Regime Cross
$95.64median $169.38$402.48
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$95.64
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$402.48
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Owens Corning (OC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Owens Corning's intrinsic value is estimated at $169.38, suggesting a +18.3% median upside from the current price of $143.13. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $402.48 (+181.2%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $95.64 (-33.2%). This +214.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About OC?

10 of 13 models are currently active for OC. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OC is $169.38 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $221.40 on its own, implying +54.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OC Rank in Building Products & Equipment?

Among 39 Building Products & Equipment stocks, OC ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Owens Corning's positioning within the Building Products & Equipment segment means that capacity utilization rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including aftermarket and services growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is OC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OC a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Owens Corning. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Owens Corning earns a quality score of 7.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +214.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OC's 10 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Owens Corning Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Building Products & Equipment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Building Products & Equipment stocks with 13-model coverage

FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc.QOC 7.3NXQuanex Building Products CorporationQOC 6.8BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc.QOC 7.3INVEIdentiv, Inc.QOC 6.1APTAlpha Pro Tech, Ltd.QOC 7.4UUUUniversal Safety Products, IncQOC 5.8MAIRMadison Air Solutions CorporationQOC 4.8LMBLimbach Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8NPKINPK International Inc.QOC 7.8TTTrane Technologies plcQOC 9.4LIILennox International Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: FBIN · NX · BLDR · INVE · APT · UUU · MAIR · LMB · NPKI · TT · LII

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OC?

7 companies across all industries closest to OC’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

ARVNArvinas, Inc.QOC 7.2FFord Motor CompanyQOC 7.2ZUMZZumiez Inc.QOC 7.2ABRArbor Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2ACRACRES Commercial Realty Corp.QOC 7.2SOLVSolventum CorporationQOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ARVN · F · ZUMZ · ABR · ACR · SOLV · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Owens Corning’s Valuation?

What is Owens Corning's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Owens Corning (OC)'s intrinsic value at $169.38 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $95.64 to $402.48. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $221.40 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $143.13, 6 of 10 active models suggest OC may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $169.38, 18.3% above the current price of $143.13 — a consensus view that OC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Owens Corning's business model in Building Products & Equipment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for OC?

Owens Corning's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OC?

CirclFi analyzes OC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OC?

Of the 10 models currently active on OC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $402.48 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $95.64. CirclFi's published fair value for OC is the median of that range, $169.38, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 181% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OC a value trap in 2026?

Owens Corning's Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Owens Corning (OC) has a median fair value of $169.38 — 18.3% above the current price of $143.13 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OC valuation
  • Financial statements: Owens Corning 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001370946) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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