Unitil Corporation (UTL) Fair Value 2026

UTL · Utilities - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Unitil Corporation (UTL) trades at $53.10, versus a $42.41 median fair value across its 9 active models — 20.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $136.17.

Key Facts

Ticker
UTL
Price
$53.10
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +156.4% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Unitil Corporation (UTL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Unitil Corporation (UTL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $42.41, 20.1% below the current price of $53.10. Estimates range from $12.37 to $136.17. UTL scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. UTL’s -20.1% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Unitil Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give UTL?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($53.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $136.17 +156.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $42.41 -20.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.16 -58.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.09 -50.9%
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What Is UTL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $12.37 to $136.17

CirclFi's 9 active models place Unitil Corporation (UTL) between $12.37 and $136.17 per share, a spread of 292% of the median. The median of that range — $42.41 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for UTL, against a current price of $53.10.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$12.37median $42.41$136.17
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$12.37
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$136.17
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for UTL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on UTL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Unitil Corporation (UTL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Unitil Corporation at its current price of $53.10. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $42.41 (-20.1% vs price), with 6 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $136.17 (+156.4%), versus Dynamic NAV at $12.37 (-76.7%). This +233.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About UTL?

9 of 13 models are currently active for UTL. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for UTL is $42.41 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $136.17 on its own, implying +156.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UTL Rank in Utilities - Diversified?

Among 5 Utilities - Diversified stocks, UTL ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

As a power and energy company, Unitil Corporation operates in a sector where customer growth rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating UTL should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is UTL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UTL a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Unitil Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Unitil Corporation is rated at 7.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +233.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UTL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UTL's 9 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Unitil Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Utilities - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

AESThe AES CorporationQOC 7.7AVAAvista CorporationQOC 7.4SRESempraQOC 6.8AQNAlgonquin Power & Utilities Corp.QOC 3.2

Read investment analysis: AES · AVA · SRE · AQN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to UTL?

7 companies across all industries closest to UTL’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

INGMIngram Micro Holding CorporationQOC 7.2LFSTLifeStance Health Group, Inc.QOC 7.2TRTXTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2ADPTAdaptive Biotechnologies CorporationQOC 7.2MOJOEQUATOR Beverage CompanyQOC 7.2HYNEHoyne Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: INGM · LFST · TRTX · ADPT · MOJO · HYNE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Unitil Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Unitil Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Unitil Corporation (UTL)'s intrinsic value at $42.41 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $12.37 to $136.17. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $136.17 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UTL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $53.10, 3 of 9 active models suggest UTL may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $42.41, 20.1% below the current price of $53.10 — a consensus view that UTL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Unitil Corporation's business model in Utilities - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for UTL?

Unitil Corporation's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UTL?

CirclFi analyzes UTL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on UTL?

Of the 9 models currently active on UTL, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $136.17 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $12.37. CirclFi's published fair value for UTL is the median of that range, $42.41, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 292% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is UTL a value trap in 2026?

Unitil Corporation's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Unitil Corporation (UTL) has a median fair value of $42.41 — 20.1% below the current price of $53.10 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/UTL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this UTL valuation
  • Financial statements: Unitil Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000755001) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for UTL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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