Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor (AQN) Fair Value 2026

AQN · Utilities - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor (AQN) trades at $5.74, approximately 339% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.31. QOC: 2.8/10. 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AQN
Price
$5.74
Quality Score
2.8/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +76.7% upside with 35% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.8/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.74)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$1.31 -77.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$4.53 -21.1%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$10.13 +76.7%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
$1.86 -67.6%

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What Is Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor (AQN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $5.74. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $5.61 (-2.3% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 6 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $15.26 (+166.1%), versus Bayesian DCF at $1.31 (-77.2%). This +243.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AQN?

11 of 13 models are currently active for AQN. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AQN's intrinsic value at $1.31, implying -77.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AQN Rank in Utilities - Diversified?

Among 2 Utilities - Diversified stocks, AQN ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.8 signals below-average fundamentals.

Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor's positioning within the Utilities - Diversified segment means that rate base growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including clean energy transition investment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AQN a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for AQN. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor scores 2.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +243.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AQN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AQN's 11 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Utilities - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AES

Frequently Asked Questions About Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor

What is Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor (AQN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.31. The Quality of Company score is 2.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AQN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.74, 4 of 11 active models suggest AQN may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor's business model in Utilities - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.8 mean for AQN?

Algonquin Power & Utilities Cor's QOC of 2.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AQN?

CirclFi analyzes AQN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AQN a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for AQN at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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