The AES Corporation (AES) Fair Value 2026

AES · Utilities - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The AES Corporation (AES) trades at $14.75, versus a $24.52 median fair value across its 8 active models — 66.3% above the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $74.59.

Key Facts

Ticker
AES
Price
$14.75
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +405.7% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is The AES Corporation (AES) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, The AES Corporation (AES) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $24.52, 66.3% above the current price of $14.75. Estimates range from $2.41 to $74.59. AES scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AES’s +66.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The AES Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AES?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.75)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $74.59 +405.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $23.89 +62.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.41 -83.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.23 -10.3%
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What Is AES's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $2.41 to $74.59

CirclFi's 8 active models place The AES Corporation (AES) between $2.41 and $74.59 per share, a spread of 294% of the median. The median of that range — $24.52 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AES, against a current price of $14.75.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$2.41median $24.52$74.59
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$2.41
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$74.59
Model agreement5 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AES. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AES, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The AES Corporation (AES) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The AES Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $24.52. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $14.75 (implied upside of +66.3%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 8 bullish models. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +405.7% (fair value: $74.59), while EROIC is the most conservative at -83.6% ($2.41). The spread between these extremes — +489.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AES?

8 of 13 models are currently active for AES. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AES is $24.52 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $74.59 on its own, implying +405.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AES Rank in Utilities - Diversified?

Among 5 Utilities - Diversified stocks, AES ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Utilities - Diversified space, The AES Corporation competes in an environment where payout ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AES a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AES a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for The AES Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, The AES Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +489.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AES valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AES's 8 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The AES Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Utilities - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

AVAAvista CorporationQOC 7.4UTLUnitil CorporationQOC 7.2SRESempraQOC 6.8AQNAlgonquin Power & Utilities Corp.QOC 3.2

Read investment analysis: AVA · UTL · SRE · AQN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AES?

7 companies across all industries closest to AES’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

SAROStandardAero, Inc.QOC 7.7HLIOHelios Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.7BTMDbiote Corp.QOC 7.7BWLPBW LPG LimitedQOC 7.7MGMistras Group, Inc.QOC 7.7MOAltria Group, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SARO · HLIO · BTMD · BWLP · MG · MO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The AES Corporation’s Valuation?

What is The AES Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The AES Corporation (AES)'s intrinsic value at $24.52 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.41 to $74.59. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $74.59 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AES overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.75, 5 of 8 active models suggest AES may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $24.52, 66.3% above the current price of $14.75 — a consensus view that AES is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The AES Corporation's business model in Utilities - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for AES?

The AES Corporation's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AES?

CirclFi analyzes AES with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AES?

Of the 8 models currently active on AES, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $74.59 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $2.41. CirclFi's published fair value for AES is the median of that range, $24.52, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 294% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AES a value trap in 2026?

The AES Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, The AES Corporation (AES) has a median fair value of $24.52 — 66.3% above the current price of $14.75 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AES/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AES valuation
  • Financial statements: The AES Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000874761) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AES as of ; valuations recomputed .

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