TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) Fair Value 2026

TRTX · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) trades at $7.73, versus a $8.62 median fair value across its 6 active models — 11.5% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TRTX
Price
$7.73
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +16.2% upside with 9% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $8.62, 11.5% above the current price of $7.73. Estimates range from $4.28 to $23.57. TRTX scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TRTX’s +11.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TRTX?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.73)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $8.98 +16.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.01 -9.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $4.28 -44.6%
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What Is TRTX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $4.28 to $23.57

CirclFi's 6 active models place TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) between $4.28 and $23.57 per share, a spread of 224% of the median. The median of that range — $8.62 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TRTX, against a current price of $7.73.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$4.28median $8.62$23.57
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$4.28
Most bullish modelPWERM$23.57
Model agreement4 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TRTX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TRTX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $8.62, suggesting a +11.5% median upside from the current price of $7.73. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $23.57 (+204.9%), versus ML-RIV at $4.28 (-44.6%). This +249.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TRTX?

6 of 13 models are currently active for TRTX. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TRTX is $8.62 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TRTX Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, TRTX ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

The REIT - Mortgage sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate investment trust businesses. For TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc., metrics like debt-to-EBITDA provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is TRTX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TRTX a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. scores 7.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +249.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TRTX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TRTX's 6 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

AGNCAGNC Investment Corp.QOC 7.2CHMICherry Hill Mortgage Investment CorporationQOC 7.2ABRArbor Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2LADRLadder Capital CorpQOC 7.2ACRACRES Commercial Realty Corp.QOC 7.2STWDStarwood Property Trust, Inc.QOC 6.9BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.QOC 6.7RPTRithm Property Trust Inc.QOC 5.1EFCEllington Financial Inc.QOC 8.1ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: AGNC · CHMI · ABR · LADR · ACR · STWD · BXMT · RPT · EFC · ORC · FBRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TRTX?

6 companies across all industries closest to TRTX’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

MOJOEQUATOR Beverage CompanyQOC 7.2INGMIngram Micro Holding CorporationQOC 7.2UTLUnitil CorporationQOC 7.2NEONNeonode Inc.QOC 7.2LFSTLifeStance Health Group, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MOJO · INGM · UTL · NEON · LFST · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX)'s intrinsic value at $8.62 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.28 to $23.57. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TRTX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.73, 4 of 6 active models suggest TRTX may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $8.62, 11.5% above the current price of $7.73 — a consensus view that TRTX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for TRTX?

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TRTX?

CirclFi analyzes TRTX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TRTX?

Of the 6 models currently active on TRTX, PWERM is the most bullish at $23.57 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $4.28. CirclFi's published fair value for TRTX is the median of that range, $8.62, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 224% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TRTX a value trap in 2026?

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) has a median fair value of $8.62 — 11.5% above the current price of $7.73 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TRTX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TRTX valuation
  • Financial statements: TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001630472) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TRTX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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