TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) Fair Value 2026

TRTX · Real Estate Investment Trusts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) trades at $8.52. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TRTX
Price
$8.52
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +218.0% upside with 39% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.52)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$14.41 +69.1%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
$8.20 -3.8%
RCMH-DCF
Medium Conviction
$6.90 -19.0%
ML-RIV
Medium Conviction
$27.10 +218.0%

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What Is TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.23, suggesting a +55.3% average upside from the current price of $8.52. While 5 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $27.10 (+218.0%), versus EROIC at $0.67 (-92.2%). This +310.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TRTX?

8 of 13 models are currently active for TRTX. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TRTX Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Among 190 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, TRTX ranks #77 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →

The Real Estate Investment Trusts sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate investment trust businesses. For TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc., metrics like debt-to-EBITDA provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is TRTX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TRTX a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. scores 7.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +310.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TRTX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TRTX's 8 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CUBE · EGP · SELF · APLE · EPRT

See all Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.

What is TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TRTX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.52, 5 of 8 active models suggest TRTX may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s business model in Real Estate Investment Trusts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for TRTX?

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TRTX?

CirclFi analyzes TRTX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TRTX a value trap in 2026?

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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