Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (CHMI) Fair Value 2026

CHMI · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (7/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (CHMI) trades at $2.92, versus a $3.06 median fair value across its 5 active models — 4.9% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 7/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CHMI
Price
$2.92
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
7/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +8.4% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (CHMI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (CHMI) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $3.06, within 4.9% of the current price of $2.92. Estimates range from $1.81 to $5.41. CHMI scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 7/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CHMI’s +4.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CHMI?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.92)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.17 +8.4%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $1.81 -37.9%
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What Is CHMI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $1.81 to $5.41

CirclFi's 5 active models place Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (CHMI) between $1.81 and $5.41 per share, a spread of 117% of the median. The median of that range — $3.06 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CHMI, against a current price of $2.92.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · FTNN
$1.81median $3.06$5.41
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$1.81
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$5.41
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CHMI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CHMI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (CHMI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $3.06, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $2.92. With a median implied return of +4.9% across a split 2–1 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +123.0% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +85.1% (fair value: $5.41), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -37.9% ($1.81). The spread between these extremes — +123.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CHMI?

5 of 13 models are currently active for CHMI. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CHMI is $3.06 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CHMI Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, CHMI ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Within the REIT - Mortgage space, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation competes in an environment where net asset value (NAV) premium/discount often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CHMI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CHMI a score of 7/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation is rated at 7.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +123.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CHMI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CHMI's 5 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

TRTXTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2LADRLadder Capital CorpQOC 7.2AGNCAGNC Investment Corp.QOC 7.2STWDStarwood Property Trust, Inc.QOC 6.9ABRArbor Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2SACHSachem Capital Corp.QOC 6.9ARRARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.QOC 6.5KREFKKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.QOC 4.8IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc.QOC 8.0ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: TRTX · LADR · AGNC · STWD · ABR · SACH · ARR · KREF · IVR · ORC · FBRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CHMI?

6 companies across all industries closest to CHMI’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

PCORProcore Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.2AUNAAuna SAQOC 7.2DCHDauch CorporationQOC 7.2TKCTurkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S.QOC 7.2ASANAsana, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PCOR · AUNA · DCH · TKC · ASAN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (CHMI)'s intrinsic value at $3.06 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.81 to $5.41. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CHMI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.92, 4 of 5 active models suggest CHMI may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $3.06, within 4.9% of the current price of $2.92 — a consensus view that CHMI is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation's business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for CHMI?

Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CHMI?

CirclFi analyzes CHMI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CHMI?

Of the 5 models currently active on CHMI, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $5.41 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $1.81. CirclFi's published fair value for CHMI is the median of that range, $3.06, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 117% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CHMI a value trap in 2026?

Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation's Value Trap score is 7/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (CHMI) has a median fair value of $3.06 — within 4.9% of the current price of $2.92 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CHMI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CHMI valuation

Market data for CHMI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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