ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) Fair Value 2026

ARR · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) trades at $16.32, versus a $20.20 median fair value across its 5 active models — 23.8% above the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARR
Price
$16.32
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +38.9% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $20.20, 23.8% above the current price of $16.32. Estimates range from $14.41 to $37.00. ARR scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ARR’s +23.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARR?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.32)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $22.67 +38.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.20 +23.8%
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What Is ARR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $14.41 to $37.00

CirclFi's 5 active models place ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) between $14.41 and $37.00 per share, a spread of 112% of the median. The median of that range — $20.20 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ARR, against a current price of $16.32.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$14.41median $20.20$37.00
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$14.41
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$37.00
Model agreement3 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ARR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ARR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $20.20. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $16.32 (implied upside of +23.8%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 3 of 5 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +126.7% (fair value: $37.00), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -11.7% ($14.41). The spread between these extremes — +138.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ARR?

5 of 13 models are currently active for ARR. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ARR is $20.20 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARR Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, ARR ranks #28 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

As a REIT, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. operates in a sector where funds from operations (FFO) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ARR should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ARR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARR a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is rated at 6.5/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +138.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARR's 5 active models, average confidence is 20%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.QOC 6.7BRSPBrightSpire Capital, Inc.QOC 6.1RITMRithm Capital Corp.QOC 6.7RCReady Capital CorporationQOC 6.0NREFNexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 6.8GPMTGranite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.QOC 5.8RPTRithm Property Trust Inc.QOC 5.1IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc.QOC 8.0TRTXTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: BXMT · BRSP · RITM · RC · NREF · GPMT · RPT · IVR · TRTX · ORC · FBRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARR?

7 companies across all industries closest to ARR’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

STEMStem, Inc.QOC 6.5SRTAStrata Critical Medical, Inc.QOC 6.5NAIINatural Alternatives International, Inc.QOC 6.5CVUCPI Aerostructures, Inc.QOC 6.5NAVINavient CorporationQOC 6.5BIDUBaidu, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: STEM · SRTA · NAII · CVU · NAVI · BIDU · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR)'s intrinsic value at $20.20 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $14.41 to $37.00. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.32, 3 of 5 active models suggest ARR may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $20.20, 23.8% above the current price of $16.32 — a consensus view that ARR is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for ARR?

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARR?

CirclFi analyzes ARR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ARR?

Of the 5 models currently active on ARR, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $37.00 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $14.41. CirclFi's published fair value for ARR is the median of that range, $20.20, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 112% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ARR a value trap in 2026?

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) has a median fair value of $20.20 — 23.8% above the current price of $16.32 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARR valuation
  • Financial statements: ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001428205) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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