Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) Fair Value 2026

RITM · Real Estate Investment Trusts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) trades at $9.25. QOC: 5.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RITM
Price
$9.25
Quality Score
5.3/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +467.6% upside with 46% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $23.65, 155.7% above the current price of $9.25. Estimates range from $0.11 to $52.50. RITM scores 5.3/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Rithm Capital Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $41.51 +348.8%
RCMH-DCF
High Conviction
 $0.19 -98.0%
ML-RIV
Medium Conviction
 $52.50 +467.6%

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What Is Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Rithm Capital Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $26.28. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $9.25 (implied upside of +184.1%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 7 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +467.6% (fair value: $52.50), while EROIC is the most conservative at -98.8% ($0.11). The spread between these extremes — +566.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About RITM?

7 of 13 models are currently active for RITM. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RITM Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Among 182 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, RITM ranks #164 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →

Rithm Capital Corp.'s positioning within the Real Estate Investment Trusts segment means that weighted average lease term (WALT) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including tenant credit quality — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is RITM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RITM a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Rithm Capital Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Rithm Capital Corp. earns a quality score of 5.3/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +566.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RITM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RITM's 7 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Rithm Capital Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks with 13-model coverage

CUBECubeSmartQOC 9.5EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.QOC 9.2SELFGlobal Self Storage, Inc.QOC 9.1EPRTEssential Properties Realty TruQOC 8.9HHHHoward Hughes Holdings Inc.QOC 8.8PSAPublic StorageQOC 8.7NSANational Storage Affiliates TruQOC 8.6ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: CUBE · EGP · SELF · EPRT · HHH

See all Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Rithm Capital Corp.

What is Rithm Capital Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 5.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RITM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.25, 5 of 7 active models suggest RITM may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $23.65, 155.7% above the current price of $9.25 — a consensus view that RITM is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Rithm Capital Corp.'s business model in Real Estate Investment Trusts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.3 mean for RITM?

Rithm Capital Corp.'s QOC of 5.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RITM?

CirclFi analyzes RITM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RITM a value trap in 2026?

Rithm Capital Corp.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) has a median fair value of $23.65 — 155.7% above the current price of $9.25 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RITM/ · Methodology

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