What Is Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $28.60, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $16.82. While the average implied return is +70.1%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +526.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $92.72 (+451.3%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $4.18 (-75.1%). This +526.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About BXMT?
11 of 13 models are currently active for BXMT. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BXMT's intrinsic value at $63.52, implying +277.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does BXMT Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?
Among 183 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, BXMT ranks #90 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.
See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →
Within the Real Estate Investment Trusts space, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. competes in an environment where capitalization rate (cap rate) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is BXMT a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BXMT a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
11 of 13 models are active for Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. is rated at 6.7/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +526.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every BXMT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across BXMT's 11 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
Buy with Gumroad