Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) Fair Value 2026

BXMT · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) trades at $13.81, versus a $14.59 median fair value across its 6 active models — 5.7% above the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BXMT
Price
$13.81
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $14.59, within 5.7% of the current price of $13.81. Estimates range from $3.87 to $53.81. BXMT scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BXMT’s +5.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BXMT?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $13.04 -5.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.05 -27.2%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.87 -72.0%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 3 additional models including PWERM, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 6 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is BXMT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $3.87 to $53.81

CirclFi's 6 active models place Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) between $3.87 and $53.81 per share, a spread of 342% of the median. The median of that range — $14.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BXMT, against a current price of $13.81.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$3.87median $14.59$53.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$3.87
Most bullish modelPWERM$53.81
Model agreement3 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BXMT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BXMT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $14.59, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $13.81. While the median implied return is +5.7%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +361.6% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $53.81 (+289.6%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $3.87 (-72.0%). This +361.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BXMT?

6 of 13 models are currently active for BXMT. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BXMT is $14.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BXMT Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, BXMT ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

Within the REIT - Mortgage space, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. competes in an environment where capitalization rate (cap rate) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BXMT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BXMT a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. is rated at 6.7/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +361.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BXMT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BXMT's 6 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

RITMRithm Capital Corp.QOC 6.7ARRARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.QOC 6.5NREFNexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 6.8BRSPBrightSpire Capital, Inc.QOC 6.1SEVNSeven Hills Realty TrustQOC 6.8RCReady Capital CorporationQOC 6.0CMTGClaros Mortgage Trust, Inc.QOC 5.2EFCEllington Financial Inc.QOC 8.1TRTXTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: RITM · ARR · NREF · BRSP · SEVN · RC · CMTG · EFC · TRTX · ORC · FBRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BXMT?

7 companies across all industries closest to BXMT’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

KCKingsoft Cloud Holdings LimitedQOC 6.7CRNXCrinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.7SOThe Southern CompanyQOC 6.7BTEBaytex Energy Corp.QOC 6.7KTKT CorporationQOC 6.7ALKTAlkami Technology, Inc.QOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KC · CRNX · SO · BTE · KT · ALKT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)'s intrinsic value at $14.59 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.87 to $53.81. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BXMT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.81, 3 of 6 active models suggest BXMT may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $14.59, within 5.7% of the current price of $13.81 — a consensus view that BXMT is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for BXMT?

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BXMT?

CirclFi analyzes BXMT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BXMT?

Of the 6 models currently active on BXMT, PWERM is the most bullish at $53.81 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $3.87. CirclFi's published fair value for BXMT is the median of that range, $14.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 342% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BXMT a value trap in 2026?

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) has a median fair value of $14.59 — within 5.7% of the current price of $13.81 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BXMT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BXMT valuation
  • Financial statements: Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001061630) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BXMT as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 6 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on BXMT.

Unlock All 6 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

3 models hidden for BXMT Unlock All 6 — $39/mo