Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) Fair Value 2026

MDGL · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) trades at $533.76, versus a $51.34 median fair value across its 2 active models — 90.4% below the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MDGL
Price
$533.76
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: 2 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $51.34, 90.4% below the current price of $533.76. Estimates range from $45.34 to $57.34. MDGL scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MDGL’s -90.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MDGL?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($533.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $57.34 -89.3%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $45.34 -91.5%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $51.34. Trading at its current price of $533.76, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 2 of 2 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -90.4%.

What Do the Models Say About MDGL?

2 of 13 models are currently active for MDGL. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for MDGL is $51.34 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MDGL Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, MDGL ranks #66 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that market exclusivity window plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including gene therapy and cell therapy innovation — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MDGL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MDGL a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.7/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

Models cluster within a tight range (+2.2% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MDGL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MDGL's 2 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

XBIOXenetic Biosciences, Inc.QOC 6.7BCYCBicycle Therapeutics plcQOC 6.7OCULOcular Therapeutix, Inc.QOC 6.8LEGNLegend Biotech CorporationQOC 6.7CSBRChampions Oncology, Inc.QOC 6.8INSMInsmed IncorporatedQOC 6.7IRDOpus Genetics, Inc.QOC 5.4MLYSMineralys Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.8DRMADermata Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.0EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: XBIO · BCYC · OCUL · LEGN · CSBR · INSM · IRD · MLYS · DRMA · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MDGL?

7 companies across all industries closest to MDGL’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

RITMRithm Capital Corp.QOC 6.7GMGeneral Motors CompanyQOC 6.7GKOSGlaukos CorporationQOC 6.7MEDMedifast, Inc.QOC 6.7INNVInnovAge Holding Corp.QOC 6.7SCMStellus Capital Investment CorporationQOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RITM · GM · GKOS · MED · INNV · SCM · NVDA

Where Does MDGL Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

MDGL is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL)'s intrinsic value at $51.34 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $45.34 to $57.34. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MDGL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $533.76, 0 of 2 active models suggest MDGL may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $51.34, 90.4% below the current price of $533.76 — a consensus view that MDGL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for MDGL?

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MDGL?

CirclFi analyzes MDGL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MDGL a value trap in 2026?

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) has a median fair value of $51.34 — 90.4% below the current price of $533.76 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MDGL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MDGL valuation
  • Financial statements: Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001157601) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MDGL as of ; valuations recomputed .