Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) Fair Value 2026

VNDA · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) trades at $5.29. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VNDA
Price
$5.29
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +32.4% upside with 18% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VNDA?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Low Conviction
 $7.01 +32.4%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.. Trading at $5.29 against an estimated intrinsic value of $7.01, 1 of 1 active models flag meaningful upside of +32.4% at the median.

What Do the Models Say About VNDA?

1 of 13 models are currently active for VNDA. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VNDA Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, VNDA ranks #62 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Within the Biotechnology space, Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. competes in an environment where partnership revenue often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is VNDA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VNDA a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. is rated at 6.8/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VNDA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VNDA's 1 active models, average confidence is 18%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

QTTBQ32 Bio Inc.QOC 6.8CSBRChampions Oncology, Inc.QOC 6.8TNGXTango Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.8OCULOcular Therapeutix, Inc.QOC 6.8OCGNOcugen, Inc.QOC 6.8XBIOXenetic Biosciences, Inc.QOC 6.7SRRKScholar Rock Holding CorporationQOC 5.5CNSYCerenome, Inc.QOC 4.8BIXTBioxytran, Inc.QOC 4.1EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: QTTB · CSBR · TNGX · OCUL · OCGN · XBIO · SRRK · CNSY · BIXT · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VNDA?

7 companies across all industries closest to VNDA’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

REIRing Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc.QOC 6.8MGPIMGP Ingredients, Inc.QOC 6.8HZOMarineMax, Inc.QOC 6.8PHIPLDT Inc.QOC 6.8RXORXO, Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: REI · EL · MGPI · HZO · PHI · RXO · NVDA

Where Does VNDA Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

VNDA is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA). The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VNDA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.29, 1 of 1 active models suggest VNDA may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for VNDA?

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VNDA?

CirclFi analyzes VNDA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is VNDA a value trap in 2026?

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) a Quality of Company score of 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VNDA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VNDA valuation
  • Financial statements: Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001347178) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VNDA as of ; valuations recomputed .