ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) Fair Value 2026

ASX · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) trades at $46.78, versus a $14.94 median fair value across its 8 active models — 68.1% below the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $13.52.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASX
Price
$46.78
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $14.94, 68.1% below the current price of $46.78. Estimates range from $5.87 to $109.38. ASX scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ASX’s -68.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -64.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ASX?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($46.78)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.52 -71.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.87 -87.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $16.37 -65.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $25.99 -44.4%
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What Is ASX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $5.87 to $109.38

CirclFi's 8 active models place ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) between $5.87 and $109.38 per share, a spread of 693% of the median. The median of that range — $14.94 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ASX, against a current price of $46.78.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$5.87median $14.94$109.38
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$5.87
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$109.38
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ASX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ASX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $14.94. Trading at its current price of $46.78, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -68.1%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $109.38 (+133.8%), versus EPV at $5.87 (-87.5%). This +221.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ASX?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ASX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ASX is $14.94 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $13.52 on its own, implying -71.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASX Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, ASX ranks #43 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.'s positioning within the Semiconductors segment means that wafer utilization rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including process node advancement — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ASX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASX a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. scores 6.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +221.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASX's 8 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

LASRnLIGHT, Inc.QOC 6.7MXLMaxLinear, Inc.QOC 6.6ALGMAllegro MicroSystems, Inc.QOC 6.8LEDSSemiLEDs CorporationQOC 6.6INTCIntel CorporationQOC 6.8INDIindie Semiconductor, Inc.QOC 6.3FABCFabric.AI, Inc.QOC 4.3RMBSRambus Inc.QOC 9.4MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: LASR · MXL · ALGM · LEDS · INTC · INDI · FABC · RMBS · MTSI · NVDA · AVGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ASX?

6 companies across all industries closest to ASX’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

SWAGStran & Company, Inc.QOC 6.7BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.QOC 6.7NAMMNamib MineralsQOC 6.7SVCOSilvaco Group, Inc.QOC 6.7BTBDBT Brands, Inc.QOC 6.7MDGLMadrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.7

Read investment analysis: SWAG · BXMT · NAMM · SVCO · BTBD · MDGL

Where Does ASX Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

ASX is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX)'s intrinsic value at $14.94 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $5.87 to $109.38. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $13.52 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $46.78, 1 of 8 active models suggest ASX may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $14.94, 68.1% below the current price of $46.78 — a consensus view that ASX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.'s business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for ASX?

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASX?

CirclFi analyzes ASX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ASX?

Of the 8 models currently active on ASX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $109.38 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $5.87. CirclFi's published fair value for ASX is the median of that range, $14.94, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 693% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ASX a value trap in 2026?

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) has a median fair value of $14.94 — 68.1% below the current price of $46.78 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ASX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ASX valuation
  • Financial statements: ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001122411) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ASX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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