Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Fair Value 2026

MPWR · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) trades at $1311.08, versus a $300.17 median fair value across its 9 active models — 77.1% below the current price. QOC: 9.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $202.48.

Key Facts

Ticker
MPWR
Price
$1311.08
Quality Score
9.5/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $300.17, 77.1% below the current price of $1311.08. Estimates range from $119.90 to $1530.98. MPWR scores 9.5/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MPWR’s -77.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -62.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MPWR?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1311.08)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $202.48 -84.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $300.17 -77.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $509.46 -61.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $119.90 -90.9%
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What Is MPWR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $119.90 to $1530.98

CirclFi's 9 active models place Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) between $119.90 and $1530.98 per share, a spread of 470% of the median. The median of that range — $300.17 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MPWR, against a current price of $1311.08.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$119.90median $300.17$1530.98
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$119.90
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1530.98
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MPWR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MPWR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $300.17. Trading at its current price of $1,311.08, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -77.1%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $1,530.98 (+16.8%), versus EROIC at $119.90 (-90.9%). This +107.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MPWR?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MPWR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MPWR is $300.17 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $202.48 on its own, implying -84.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MPWR Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, MPWR ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.5 places MPWR in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

The Semiconductors sector introduces analytical considerations specific to semiconductor company businesses. For Monolithic Power Systems, Inc., metrics like gross margin trajectory provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MPWR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MPWR a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. scores 9.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +107.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MPWR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MPWR's 9 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding LtdQOC 9.6CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc.QOC 9.5AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V.QOC 9.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0RMBSRambus Inc.QOC 9.4MCHPMicrochip Technology IncorporatedQOC 8.0NVTSNavitas Semiconductor CorporationQOC 6.8PRKRParkerVision, Inc.QOC 4.8

Read investment analysis: CRDO · CRUS · AVGO · NXPI · NVDA · RMBS · MCHP · NVTS · PRKR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MPWR?

6 companies across all industries closest to MPWR’s Quality of Company score of 9.5/10.

STXSeagate Technology Holdings plcQOC 9.5IDCCInterDigital, Inc.QOC 9.5INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5ASRGrupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V.QOC 9.5MSFTMicrosoft CorporationQOC 9.5KNSLKinsale Capital Group, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: STX · IDCC · INCY · ASR · MSFT · KNSL

Where Does MPWR Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

MPWR is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR)'s intrinsic value at $300.17 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $119.90 to $1530.98. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $202.48 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MPWR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1311.08, 1 of 9 active models suggest MPWR may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $300.17, 77.1% below the current price of $1311.08 — a consensus view that MPWR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.5 mean for MPWR?

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s QOC of 9.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MPWR?

CirclFi analyzes MPWR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MPWR?

Of the 9 models currently active on MPWR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $1530.98 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $119.90. CirclFi's published fair value for MPWR is the median of that range, $300.17, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 470% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MPWR a value trap in 2026?

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) has a median fair value of $300.17 — 77.1% below the current price of $1311.08 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MPWR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MPWR valuation
  • Financial statements: Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001280452) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MPWR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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