Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Fair Value 2026

MPWR · Semiconductors & Related Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) trades at $1291.38, approximately 846% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $136.55. QOC: 10.0/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MPWR
Price
$1291.38
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 10.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1291.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$136.55 -89.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$68.77 -94.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$301.55 -76.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$249.20 -80.7%

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What Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $434.07. Trading at its current price of $1,291.38, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -66.4%. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $1,534.13 (+18.8%), versus EPV at $68.77 (-94.7%). This +113.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MPWR?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MPWR. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MPWR's intrinsic value at $136.55, implying -89.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MPWR Rank in Semiconductors & Related Devices?

Among 86 Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks, MPWR ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places MPWR in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks →

The Semiconductors & Related Devices sector introduces analytical considerations specific to semiconductor company businesses. For Monolithic Power Systems, Inc., metrics like gross margin trajectory provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MPWR a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for MPWR. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. scores 10.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +113.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MPWR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MPWR's 13 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AVGO · CRDO · CRUS · NVDA · NXPI

See all Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.

What is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $136.55. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MPWR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1291.38, 2 of 13 active models suggest MPWR may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s business model in Semiconductors & Related Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for MPWR?

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MPWR?

CirclFi analyzes MPWR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MPWR a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for MPWR at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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