TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT) Fair Value 2026

MITT · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT) trades at $6.66, versus a $10.18 median fair value across its 5 active models — 52.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MITT
Price
$6.66
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +52.8% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $10.18, 52.8% above the current price of $6.66. Estimates range from $6.99 to $13.04. MITT scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MITT’s +52.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MITT?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.18 +52.8%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $6.99 +4.9%
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What Is MITT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $6.99 to $13.04

CirclFi's 5 active models place TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT) between $6.99 and $13.04 per share, a spread of 60% of the median. The median of that range — $10.18 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MITT, against a current price of $6.66.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$6.99median $10.18$13.04
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$6.99
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$13.04
Model agreement4 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MITT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.. Trading at $6.66 against an estimated intrinsic value of $10.18, 4 of 5 active models flag meaningful upside of +52.8% at the median. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $13.04 (+95.8%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $6.99 (+4.9%). This +90.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MITT?

5 of 13 models are currently active for MITT. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for MITT is $10.18 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MITT Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, MITT ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places MITT in the top tier.

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.'s positioning within the REIT - Mortgage segment means that same-property NOI growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including rental rate escalation — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MITT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MITT a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.2/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +90.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MITT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MITT's 5 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2ADAMAdamas Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6ARIApollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 8.2KREFKKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.QOC 4.8MFAMFA Financial, Inc.QOC 8.1SUNSSunrise Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.6SACHSachem Capital Corp.QOC 6.9GPMTGranite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.QOC 5.8

Read investment analysis: FBRT · ADAM · ORC · ARI · KREF · MFA · SUNS · SACH · GPMT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MITT?

7 companies across all industries closest to MITT’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

PJTPJT Partners Inc.QOC 8.2ICFIICF International, Inc.QOC 8.2ZSZscaler, Inc.QOC 8.2YUMYum! Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2NBBKNB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PJT · ICFI · ZS · YUM · NBBK · KDP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT)'s intrinsic value at $10.18 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.99 to $13.04. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MITT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.66, 5 of 5 active models suggest MITT may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $10.18, 52.8% above the current price of $6.66 — a consensus view that MITT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for MITT?

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MITT?

CirclFi analyzes MITT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MITT?

Of the 5 models currently active on MITT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $13.04 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $6.99. CirclFi's published fair value for MITT is the median of that range, $10.18, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 60% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MITT a value trap in 2026?

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT) has a median fair value of $10.18 — 52.8% above the current price of $6.66 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MITT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MITT valuation

Market data for MITT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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