Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) Fair Value 2026

ECPG · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) trades at $98.94, versus a $153.02 median fair value across its 6 active models — 54.7% above the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ECPG
Price
$98.94
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +63.0% upside with 49% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $153.02, 54.7% above the current price of $98.94. Estimates range from $41.58 to $212.76. ECPG scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ECPG’s +54.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Credit Services sector median is +15.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Encore Capital Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ECPG?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($98.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $41.58 -58.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $144.73 +46.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $161.31 +63.0%
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What Is ECPG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $41.58 to $212.76

CirclFi's 6 active models place Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) between $41.58 and $212.76 per share, a spread of 112% of the median. The median of that range — $153.02 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ECPG, against a current price of $98.94.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$41.58median $153.02$212.76
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$41.58
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$212.76
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ECPG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ECPG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Encore Capital Group, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $98.94. Based on our 13-model framework, Encore Capital Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $153.02 — representing +54.7% implied upside — with 5 out of 6 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $212.76 (+115.0%), versus EPV at $41.58 (-58.0%). This +173.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ECPG?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ECPG. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ECPG is $153.02 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ECPG Rank in Credit Services?

Among 54 Credit Services stocks, ECPG ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Credit Services Stocks →

Within the Credit Services space, Encore Capital Group, Inc. competes in an environment where non-performing loan ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ECPG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ECPG a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Encore Capital Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Encore Capital Group, Inc. is rated at 7.8/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +173.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ECPG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ECPG's 6 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Encore Capital Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

CACCCredit Acceptance CorporationQOC 7.8SPFXStandard Premium Finance Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7OPRTOportun Financial CorporationQOC 7.9RMRegional Management Corp.QOC 7.6ENVAEnova International, Inc.QOC 7.9JCAPJefferson Capital, Inc.QOC 7.6HTTHigh Templar Tech LimitedQOC 7.2VRMVroom, Inc.QOC 5.0LXLexinFintech Holdings Ltd.QOC 9.0JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CACC · SPFX · OPRT · RM · ENVA · JCAP · HTT · VRM · LX · JFIN · MA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ECPG?

7 companies across all industries closest to ECPG’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

IIPRInnovative Industrial Properties, Inc.QOC 7.8CSRCenterspaceQOC 7.8QNBCQNB Corp.QOC 7.8PNFPPinnacle Financial Partners, Inc.QOC 7.8NTSTNETSTREIT Corp.QOC 7.8AMSFAMERISAFE, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IIPR · CSR · QNBC · PNFP · NTST · AMSF · NVDA

Where Does ECPG Sit in CirclFi's Credit Services Rankings?

ECPG is ranked against every other Credit Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Credit Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Encore Capital Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Encore Capital Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG)'s intrinsic value at $153.02 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $41.58 to $212.76. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ECPG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $98.94, 5 of 6 active models suggest ECPG may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $153.02, 54.7% above the current price of $98.94 — a consensus view that ECPG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Encore Capital Group, Inc.'s business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for ECPG?

Encore Capital Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ECPG?

CirclFi analyzes ECPG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ECPG?

Of the 6 models currently active on ECPG, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $212.76 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $41.58. CirclFi's published fair value for ECPG is the median of that range, $153.02, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 112% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ECPG a value trap in 2026?

Encore Capital Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) has a median fair value of $153.02 — 54.7% above the current price of $98.94 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ECPG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ECPG valuation
  • Financial statements: Encore Capital Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001084961) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ECPG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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