Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) Fair Value 2026

JCAP · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) trades at $21.09, versus a $36.18 median fair value across its 5 active models — 71.5% above the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
JCAP
Price
$21.09
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +120.0% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $36.18, 71.5% above the current price of $21.09. Estimates range from $26.51 to $46.39. JCAP scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. JCAP’s +71.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Credit Services sector median is +15.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Jefferson Capital, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give JCAP?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $36.99 +75.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $46.39 +120.0%
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What Is JCAP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $26.51 to $46.39

CirclFi's 5 active models place Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) between $26.51 and $46.39 per share, a spread of 55% of the median. The median of that range — $36.18 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for JCAP, against a current price of $21.09.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · Markov DDM
$26.51median $36.18$46.39
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$26.51
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$46.39
Model agreement5 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on JCAP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Jefferson Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $36.18. At a current market price of $21.09, 5 of 5 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +71.5%. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +120.0% (fair value: $46.39), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at +25.7% ($26.51). The spread between these extremes — +94.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About JCAP?

5 of 13 models are currently active for JCAP. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for JCAP is $36.18 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JCAP Rank in Credit Services?

Among 54 Credit Services stocks, JCAP ranks #23 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Credit Services Stocks →

Jefferson Capital, Inc.'s positioning within the Credit Services segment means that return on tangible equity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fee income diversification — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is JCAP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JCAP a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Jefferson Capital, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Jefferson Capital, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +94.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JCAP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JCAP's 5 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Jefferson Capital, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

RMRegional Management Corp.QOC 7.6PMTSCPI Card Group Inc.QOC 7.6SPFXStandard Premium Finance Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7ATLCAtlanticus Holdings CorporationQOC 7.6ECPGEncore Capital Group, Inc.QOC 7.8OMFOneMain Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5SLMSLM CorporationQOC 7.0STQNStrategic Acquisitions, Inc.QOC 4.3EZPWEZCORP, Inc.QOC 8.6JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: RM · PMTS · SPFX · ATLC · ECPG · OMF · SLM · STQN · EZPW · JFIN · MA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to JCAP?

7 companies across all industries closest to JCAP’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6ODDOddity Tech Ltd.QOC 7.6SUISun Communities, Inc.QOC 7.6REYNReynolds Consumer Products Inc.QOC 7.6WRBYWarby Parker Inc.QOC 7.6ENBEnbridge Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NP · ODD · SUI · REYN · WRBY · ENB · NVDA

Where Does JCAP Sit in CirclFi's Credit Services Rankings?

JCAP is ranked against every other Credit Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Credit Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Jefferson Capital, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Jefferson Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)'s intrinsic value at $36.18 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $26.51 to $46.39. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JCAP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.09, 5 of 5 active models suggest JCAP may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $36.18, 71.5% above the current price of $21.09 — a consensus view that JCAP is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Jefferson Capital, Inc.'s business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for JCAP?

Jefferson Capital, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JCAP?

CirclFi analyzes JCAP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on JCAP?

Of the 5 models currently active on JCAP, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $46.39 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $26.51. CirclFi's published fair value for JCAP is the median of that range, $36.18, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 55% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is JCAP a value trap in 2026?

Jefferson Capital, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) has a median fair value of $36.18 — 71.5% above the current price of $21.09 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/JCAP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this JCAP valuation
  • Financial statements: Jefferson Capital, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002046042) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for JCAP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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