Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Fair Value 2026

HLMN · Tools & Accessories ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) trades at $7.85, versus a $9.47 median fair value across its 9 active models — 20.6% above the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HLMN
Price
$7.85
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +204.1% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $9.47, 20.6% above the current price of $7.85. Estimates range from $1.30 to $23.88. HLMN scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HLMN’s +20.6% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hillman Solutions Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HLMN?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $9.47 +20.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $23.88 +204.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.58 -67.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.64 -79.2%
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What Is HLMN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $1.30 to $23.88

CirclFi's 9 active models place Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) between $1.30 and $23.88 per share, a spread of 239% of the median. The median of that range — $9.47 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HLMN, against a current price of $7.85.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · First Chicago
$1.30median $9.47$23.88
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$1.30
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$23.88
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HLMN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HLMN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Hillman Solutions Corp. at $7.85. With an estimated intrinsic value of $9.47 and 6 of 9 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +20.6%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $23.88 (+204.1%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $1.30 (-83.4%). This +287.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Hillman Solutions Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HLMN?

9 of 13 models are currently active for HLMN. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HLMN is $9.47 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HLMN Rank in Tools & Accessories?

Among 8 Tools & Accessories stocks, HLMN ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Hillman Solutions Corp. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HLMN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HLMN a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Hillman Solutions Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Hillman Solutions Corp. is rated at 7.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +287.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HLMN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HLMN's 9 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hillman Solutions Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Tools & Accessories Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

7 related Tools & Accessories stocks with 13-model coverage

LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3SNASnap-on IncorporatedQOC 9.0RBCRBC Bearings IncorporatedQOC 8.7TTCThe Toro CompanyQOC 8.4TKRThe Timken CompanyQOC 8.1SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc.QOC 7.7EMLThe Eastern CompanyQOC 6.9

Read investment analysis: LECO · SNA · RBC · TTC · TKR · SWK · EML

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HLMN?

7 companies across all industries closest to HLMN’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

LBLandBridge Company LLCQOC 7.6IDAIDACORP, Inc.QOC 7.6MOSThe Mosaic CompanyQOC 7.6VSTVistra Corp.QOC 7.6GRDNGuardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.QOC 7.6HDSNHudson Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LB · IDA · MOS · VST · GRDN · HDSN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hillman Solutions Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Hillman Solutions Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN)'s intrinsic value at $9.47 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.30 to $23.88. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HLMN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.85, 6 of 9 active models suggest HLMN may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $9.47, 20.6% above the current price of $7.85 — a consensus view that HLMN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hillman Solutions Corp.'s business model in Tools & Accessories.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for HLMN?

Hillman Solutions Corp.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HLMN?

CirclFi analyzes HLMN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HLMN?

Of the 9 models currently active on HLMN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $23.88 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $1.30. CirclFi's published fair value for HLMN is the median of that range, $9.47, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 239% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HLMN a value trap in 2026?

Hillman Solutions Corp.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) has a median fair value of $9.47 — 20.6% above the current price of $7.85 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HLMN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HLMN valuation
  • Financial statements: Hillman Solutions Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001822492) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HLMN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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