CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) Fair Value 2026

PMTS · Credit Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) trades at $28.95, versus a $40.97 median fair value across its 10 active models — 41.5% above the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $74.19.

Key Facts

Ticker
PMTS
Price
$28.95
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +337.7% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $40.97, 41.5% above the current price of $28.95. Estimates range from $3.66 to $126.72. PMTS scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PMTS’s +41.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Credit Services sector median is +17.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy CPI Card Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PMTS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($28.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $74.19 +156.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $20.49 -29.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $42.48 +46.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $126.72 +337.7%
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What Is PMTS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $3.66 to $126.72

CirclFi's 10 active models place CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) between $3.66 and $126.72 per share, a spread of 300% of the median. The median of that range — $40.97 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PMTS, against a current price of $28.95.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$3.66median $40.97$126.72
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$3.66
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$126.72
Model agreement7 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PMTS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PMTS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on CPI Card Group Inc. at $28.95. With an estimated intrinsic value of $40.97 and 7 of 10 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +41.5%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $126.72 (+337.7%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $3.66 (-87.4%). This +425.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about CPI Card Group Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PMTS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for PMTS. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PMTS is $40.97 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $74.19 on its own, implying +156.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PMTS Rank in Credit Services?

Among 54 Credit Services stocks, PMTS ranks #24 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Credit Services Stocks →

CPI Card Group Inc.'s positioning within the Credit Services segment means that loan loss provisions plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including credit quality trends — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PMTS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PMTS a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for CPI Card Group Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, CPI Card Group Inc. earns a quality score of 7.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +425.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PMTS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PMTS's 10 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CPI Card Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Credit Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Credit Services stocks with 13-model coverage

JCAPJefferson Capital, Inc.QOC 7.6ATLCAtlanticus Holdings CorporationQOC 7.6RMRegional Management Corp.QOC 7.6OMFOneMain Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5SPFXStandard Premium Finance Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7COFCapital One Financial CorporationQOC 7.5YRDYiren Digital Ltd.QOC 7.0DXFEason Technology LimitedQOC 4.1FINVFinVolution GroupQOC 8.6JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: JCAP · ATLC · RM · OMF · SPFX · COF · YRD · DXF · FINV · JFIN · MA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PMTS?

7 companies across all industries closest to PMTS’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc.QOC 7.6DDLDingdong (Cayman) LimitedQOC 7.6AKRAcadia Realty TrustQOC 7.6ELEElemental Royalty CorporationQOC 7.6NCNACCO Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6HPAIHelport AI LimitedQOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SMP · DDL · AKR · ELE · NC · HPAI · NVDA

Where Does PMTS Sit in CirclFi's Credit Services Rankings?

PMTS is ranked against every other Credit Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Credit Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About CPI Card Group Inc.’s Valuation?

What is CPI Card Group Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS)'s intrinsic value at $40.97 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.66 to $126.72. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $74.19 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PMTS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $28.95, 7 of 10 active models suggest PMTS may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $40.97, 41.5% above the current price of $28.95 — a consensus view that PMTS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CPI Card Group Inc.'s business model in Credit Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for PMTS?

CPI Card Group Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PMTS?

CirclFi analyzes PMTS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PMTS?

Of the 10 models currently active on PMTS, First Chicago is the most bullish at $126.72 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $3.66. CirclFi's published fair value for PMTS is the median of that range, $40.97, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 300% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PMTS a value trap in 2026?

CPI Card Group Inc.'s Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) has a median fair value of $40.97 — 41.5% above the current price of $28.95 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PMTS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PMTS valuation
  • Financial statements: CPI Card Group Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001641614) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PMTS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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