CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) Fair Value 2026

PMTS · Commercial Printing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) trades at $19.24, approximately 70% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $63.34. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PMTS
Price
$19.24
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +229.2% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$63.34 +229.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$35.72 +85.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$30.02 +56.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$33.53 +74.3%

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What Is CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on CPI Card Group Inc. at $19.24. With an estimated intrinsic value of $24.19 and 7 of 12 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +25.7%. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $63.34 (+229.2%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $3.68 (-80.9%). This +310.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about CPI Card Group Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PMTS?

12 of 13 models are currently active for PMTS. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates PMTS's intrinsic value at $63.34, implying +229.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PMTS Rank in Commercial Printing?

Among 6 Commercial Printing stocks, PMTS ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

CPI Card Group Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is PMTS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PMTS a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for CPI Card Group Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, CPI Card Group Inc. earns a quality score of 7.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +310.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PMTS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PMTS's 12 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CPI Card Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Commercial Printing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related Commercial Printing stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CRE · CMPR · QUAD · SFHG · MGIH

Frequently Asked Questions About CPI Card Group Inc.

What is CPI Card Group Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $63.34. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PMTS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.24, 7 of 12 active models suggest PMTS may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CPI Card Group Inc.'s business model in Commercial Printing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for PMTS?

CPI Card Group Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PMTS?

CirclFi analyzes PMTS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PMTS a value trap in 2026?

CPI Card Group Inc.'s Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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