Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (ATLC) Fair Value 2026

ATLC · Personal Credit Institutions ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (ATLC) trades at $96.61, approximately 79% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $468.65. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ATLC
Price
$96.61
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +385.1% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($96.61)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$468.65 +385.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$31.88 -67.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$111.94 +15.9%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$114.90 +18.9%

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What Is Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (ATLC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $136.18. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $96.61 (implied upside of +41.0%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 12 bullish models. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +385.1% (fair value: $468.65), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -74.5% ($24.62). The spread between these extremes — +459.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ATLC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ATLC. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ATLC's intrinsic value at $468.65, implying +385.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ATLC Rank in Personal Credit Institutions?

Among 15 Personal Credit Institutions stocks, ATLC ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

The Personal Credit Institutions sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For Atlanticus Holdings Corporation, metrics like return on tangible equity provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ATLC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ATLC a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Atlanticus Holdings Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Atlanticus Holdings Corporation scores 7.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +459.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ATLC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ATLC's 12 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Atlanticus Holdings Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Personal Credit Institutions Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Personal Credit Institutions stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ENVA · NNI · CACC · OMF · BFH

Frequently Asked Questions About Atlanticus Holdings Corporation

What is Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (ATLC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $468.65. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ATLC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $96.61, 7 of 12 active models suggest ATLC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's business model in Personal Credit Institutions.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for ATLC?

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ATLC?

CirclFi analyzes ATLC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ATLC a value trap in 2026?

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation's Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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