John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB) Fair Value 2026

JMSB · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB) trades at $22.59, versus a $16.20 median fair value across its 6 active models — 28.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
JMSB
Price
$22.59
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $16.20, 28.3% below the current price of $22.59. Estimates range from $12.68 to $32.60. JMSB scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. JMSB’s -28.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give JMSB?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($22.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.03 -29.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $16.37 -27.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.68 -43.9%
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What Is JMSB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $12.68 to $32.60

CirclFi's 6 active models place John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB) between $12.68 and $32.60 per share, a spread of 123% of the median. The median of that range — $16.20 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for JMSB, against a current price of $22.59.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$12.68median $16.20$32.60
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$12.68
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$32.60
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for JMSB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on JMSB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $16.20. Trading at its current price of $22.59, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -28.3%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $32.60 (+44.3%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $12.68 (-43.9%). This +88.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About JMSB?

6 of 13 models are currently active for JMSB. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for JMSB is $16.20 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JMSB Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, JMSB ranks #220 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

The Banks - Regional sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For John Marshall Bancorp, Inc., metrics like loan loss provisions provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is JMSB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JMSB a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. scores 7.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +88.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JMSB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JMSB's 6 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

MCBMetropolitan Bank Holding Corp.QOC 7.8FUSBFirst US Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.8PNFPPinnacle Financial Partners, Inc.QOC 7.8ISTRInvestar Holding CorporationQOC 7.8QNBCQNB Corp.QOC 7.8BANCBanc of California, Inc.QOC 7.8MSBBMercer Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.9WBSWebster Financial CorpQOC 8.6WSBCWesBanco, Inc.QOC 8.2ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: MCB · FUSB · PNFP · ISTR · QNBC · BANC · MSBB · WBS · WSBC · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to JMSB?

4 companies across all industries closest to JMSB’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

EMBJEmbraer S.A.QOC 7.8AMSFAMERISAFE, Inc.QOC 7.8THOTHOR Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EMBJ · AMSF · THO · NVDA

Where Does JMSB Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

JMSB is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB)'s intrinsic value at $16.20 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.68 to $32.60. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JMSB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $22.59, 1 of 6 active models suggest JMSB may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $16.20, 28.3% below the current price of $22.59 — a consensus view that JMSB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for JMSB?

John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JMSB?

CirclFi analyzes JMSB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on JMSB?

Of the 6 models currently active on JMSB, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $32.60 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $12.68. CirclFi's published fair value for JMSB is the median of that range, $16.20, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 123% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is JMSB a value trap in 2026?

John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB) has a median fair value of $16.20 — 28.3% below the current price of $22.59 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/JMSB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this JMSB valuation
  • Financial statements: John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001710482) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for JMSB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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