Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Fair Value 2026

HOG · Recreational Vehicles ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) trades at $28.10, versus a $48.28 median fair value across its 13 active models — 71.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $68.25.

Key Facts

Ticker
HOG
Price
$28.10
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +257.2% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Is Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $48.28, 71.8% above the current price of $28.10. Estimates range from $13.76 to $100.37. HOG scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HOG’s +71.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Harley-Davidson, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HOG?

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($28.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $68.25 +142.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.39 -16.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $44.86 +59.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $100.37 +257.2%
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What Is HOG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 13 independent models · $13.76 to $100.37

CirclFi's 13 active models place Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) between $13.76 and $100.37 per share, a spread of 179% of the median. The median of that range — $48.28 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HOG, against a current price of $28.10.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$13.76median $48.28$100.37
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$13.76
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$100.37
Model agreement9 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HOG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HOG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Harley-Davidson, Inc. at $28.10. With an estimated intrinsic value of $48.28 and 9 of 13 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +71.8%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $100.37 (+257.2%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $13.76 (-51.0%). This +308.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HOG?

13 of 13 models are currently active for HOG. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HOG is $48.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $68.25 on its own, implying +142.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HOG Rank in Recreational Vehicles?

Among 17 Recreational Vehicles stocks, HOG ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places HOG in the top tier.

The Recreational Vehicles sector introduces analytical considerations specific to automotive businesses. For Harley-Davidson, Inc., metrics like average transaction price (ATP) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is HOG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HOG a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Harley-Davidson, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +308.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HOG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HOG's 13 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Harley-Davidson, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Recreational Vehicles Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Recreational Vehicles stocks with 13-model coverage

EZGOEZGO Technologies Ltd.QOC 2.3MCFTMasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2KNDIKandi Technologies Group, Inc.QOC 2.8PATKPatrick Industries, Inc.QOC 8.1MCOMMicromobility.com Inc.QOC 4.5LCIILCI IndustriesQOC 8.0DOOBRP Inc.QOC 7.8MAMOMassimo GroupQOC 7.2VMARVision Marine Technologies Inc.QOC 5.5

Read investment analysis: EZGO · MCFT · KNDI · PATK · MCOM · LCII · DOO · MAMO · VMAR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HOG?

7 companies across all industries closest to HOG’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

NEUNewMarket CorporationQOC 8.8HWKNHawkins, Inc.QOC 8.8COCOThe Vita Coco Company, Inc.QOC 8.8ABTAbbott LaboratoriesQOC 8.8PGThe Procter & Gamble CompanyQOC 8.8PEverpure, Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NEU · HWKN · COCO · ABT · PG · P · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Harley-Davidson, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)'s intrinsic value at $48.28 — the median of 13 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $13.76 to $100.37. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $68.25 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HOG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $28.10, 9 of 13 active models suggest HOG may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $48.28, 71.8% above the current price of $28.10 — a consensus view that HOG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s business model in Recreational Vehicles.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for HOG?

Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HOG?

CirclFi analyzes HOG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HOG?

Of the 13 models currently active on HOG, First Chicago is the most bullish at $100.37 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $13.76. CirclFi's published fair value for HOG is the median of that range, $48.28, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 179% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HOG a value trap in 2026?

Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) has a median fair value of $48.28 — 71.8% above the current price of $28.10 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HOG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HOG valuation
  • Financial statements: Harley-Davidson, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000793952) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HOG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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