Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Fair Value 2026

HOG · Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (11/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) trades at $25.40, approximately 67% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $75.90. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 11/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HOG
Price
$25.40
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
11/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +198.8% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $75.90 +198.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $33.69 +32.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
 $57.31 +125.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $69.63 +174.2%

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What Is Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Trading at $25.40 against an estimated intrinsic value of $55.83, 13 of 13 active models flag meaningful upside of +119.8% on average. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $110.04 (+333.2%), while PWERM — the most conservative — estimates $29.15 (+14.7%). This +318.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HOG?

13 of 13 models are currently active for HOG. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates HOG's intrinsic value at $75.90, implying +198.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HOG Rank in Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts?

Among 5 Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts stocks, HOG ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places HOG in the top tier.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HOG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HOG a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Harley-Davidson, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +318.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HOG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HOG's 13 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Harley-Davidson, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

FOXFFox Factory Holding Corp.QOC 7.1LVWRLiveWire Group, Inc.QOC 5.4EZGOEZGO Technologies Ltd.QOC 2.4LOBOLOBO TECHNOLOGIES LTD.QOC 2.2

Read investment analysis: FOXF · LVWR · EZGO · LOBO

Frequently Asked Questions About Harley-Davidson, Inc.

What is Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $75.90. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HOG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.40, 13 of 13 active models suggest HOG may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s business model in Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for HOG?

Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HOG?

CirclFi analyzes HOG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HOG a value trap in 2026?

Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 11/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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