TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) Fair Value 2026

TCBK · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) trades at $53.81, versus a $39.05 median fair value across its 6 active models — 27.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TCBK
Price
$53.81
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $39.05, 27.4% below the current price of $53.81. Estimates range from $32.28 to $48.79. TCBK scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TCBK’s -27.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TriCo Bancshares Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TCBK?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($53.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.45 -36.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $38.63 -28.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $43.33 -19.5%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 3 additional models including ML-RIV, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 6 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is TCBK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $32.28 to $48.79

CirclFi's 6 active models place TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) between $32.28 and $48.79 per share, a spread of 42% of the median. The median of that range — $39.05 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TCBK, against a current price of $53.81.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$32.28median $39.05$48.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$32.28
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$48.79
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TCBK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TriCo Bancshares's intrinsic value is estimated at $39.05. Trading at its current price of $53.81, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -27.4%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -9.3% (fair value: $48.79), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -40.0% ($32.28). The spread between these extremes — +30.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TCBK?

6 of 13 models are currently active for TCBK. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for TCBK is $39.05 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TCBK Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, TCBK ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places TCBK in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

TriCo Bancshares's positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that deposit growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including digital banking adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TCBK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TCBK a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for TriCo Bancshares. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, TriCo Bancshares earns a quality score of 8.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +30.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TCBK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TCBK's 6 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TriCo Bancshares Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

NWPPNew Peoples Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.7FCAPFirst Capital, Inc.QOC 8.7SLBKSkyline Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.7UCBUnited Community Banks, Inc.QOC 8.7ONBOld National BancorpQOC 8.7PDLBPonce Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.7WAFDWaFd, Inc.QOC 8.3SFSTSouthern First Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.9CULLCullman Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: NWPP · FCAP · SLBK · UCB · ONB · PDLB · WAFD · SFST · CULL · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TCBK?

7 companies across all industries closest to TCBK’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

ESMCEscalon Medical Corp.QOC 8.7TELTE Connectivity plcQOC 8.7DDOGDatadog, Inc.QOC 8.7DYDycom Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.QOC 8.7MNSTMonster Beverage CorporationQOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ESMC · TEL · DDOG · DY · AMD · MNST · NVDA

Where Does TCBK Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

TCBK is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About TriCo Bancshares’s Valuation?

What is TriCo Bancshares's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts TriCo Bancshares (TCBK)'s intrinsic value at $39.05 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $32.28 to $48.79. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TCBK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $53.81, 0 of 6 active models suggest TCBK may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $39.05, 27.4% below the current price of $53.81 — a consensus view that TCBK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TriCo Bancshares's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for TCBK?

TriCo Bancshares's QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TCBK?

CirclFi analyzes TCBK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TCBK?

Of the 6 models currently active on TCBK, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $48.79 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $32.28. CirclFi's published fair value for TCBK is the median of that range, $39.05, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 42% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TCBK a value trap in 2026?

TriCo Bancshares's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) has a median fair value of $39.05 — 27.4% below the current price of $53.81 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TCBK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TCBK valuation
  • Financial statements: TriCo Bancshares 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000356171) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TCBK as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 6 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on TCBK.

Unlock All 6 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

3 models hidden for TCBK Unlock All 6 — $39/mo