BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) Fair Value 2026

BRSP · Real Estate Investment Trusts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) trades at $5.43. QOC: 5.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BRSP
Price
$5.43
Quality Score
5.4/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +3.4% upside with 47% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $5.38, essentially in line with the current price of $5.43. Estimates range from $1.02 to $10.73. BRSP scores 5.4/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BrightSpire Capital, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $4.21 -22.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $5.62 +3.4%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
 $5.14 -5.4%
ML-RIV
High Conviction
 $1.35 -75.2%

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What Is BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $5.44. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $5.62 (+3.5% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $10.73 (+97.5%), versus EROIC at $1.02 (-81.3%). This +178.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BRSP?

10 of 13 models are currently active for BRSP. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BRSP Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Among 182 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, BRSP ranks #162 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →

Within the Real Estate Investment Trusts space, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. competes in an environment where debt-to-EBITDA often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BRSP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BRSP a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for BrightSpire Capital, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. is rated at 5.4/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +178.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BRSP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BRSP's 10 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BrightSpire Capital, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks with 13-model coverage

CUBECubeSmartQOC 9.5EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.QOC 9.2SELFGlobal Self Storage, Inc.QOC 9.1EPRTEssential Properties Realty TruQOC 8.9HHHHoward Hughes Holdings Inc.QOC 8.8PSAPublic StorageQOC 8.7NSANational Storage Affiliates TruQOC 8.6ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: CUBE · EGP · SELF · EPRT · HHH

See all Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About BrightSpire Capital, Inc.

What is BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 5.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BRSP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.43, 5 of 10 active models suggest BRSP may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $5.38, essentially in line with the current price of $5.43 — a consensus view that BRSP is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s business model in Real Estate Investment Trusts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.4 mean for BRSP?

BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s QOC of 5.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BRSP?

CirclFi analyzes BRSP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BRSP a value trap in 2026?

BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) has a median fair value of $5.38 — essentially in line with the current price of $5.43 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BRSP/ · Methodology

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