Blaize Holdings, Inc. (BZAI) Fair Value 2026

BZAI · Semiconductors & Related Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Blaize Holdings, Inc. (BZAI) trades at $1.13, approximately 1036% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.10. QOC: 5.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BZAI
Price
$1.13
Quality Score
5.2/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Blaize Holdings, Inc. (BZAI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Blaize Holdings, Inc. (BZAI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $0.54, 52.0% below the current price of $1.13. Estimates range from $0.10 to $1.72. BZAI scores 5.2/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Blaize Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$0.10 -91.2%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$0.23 -79.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$0.60 -47.1%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$0.54 -52.0%

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What Is Blaize Holdings, Inc. (BZAI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Blaize Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $0.74. Trading at $1.13, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -34.4%), as 8 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $1.72 (+52.4%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.10 (-91.2%). This +143.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Blaize Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BZAI?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BZAI. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BZAI's intrinsic value at $0.10, implying -91.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BZAI Rank in Semiconductors & Related Devices?

Among 82 Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks, BZAI ranks #59 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.2 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks →

Blaize Holdings, Inc.'s positioning within the Semiconductors & Related Devices segment means that wafer utilization rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including data center buildout — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BZAI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BZAI a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Blaize Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Blaize Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 5.2/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +143.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BZAI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BZAI's 11 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Blaize Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CRDO · CRUS · MPWR · NVDA · NXPI

See all Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Blaize Holdings, Inc.

What is Blaize Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Blaize Holdings, Inc. (BZAI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.10. The Quality of Company score is 5.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BZAI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.13, 3 of 11 active models suggest BZAI may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $0.54, 52.0% below the current price of $1.13 — a consensus view that BZAI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Blaize Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Semiconductors & Related Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.2 mean for BZAI?

Blaize Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 5.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BZAI?

CirclFi analyzes BZAI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BZAI a value trap in 2026?

Blaize Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Blaize Holdings, Inc. (BZAI) has a median fair value of $0.54 — 52.0% below the current price of $1.13 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BZAI/ · Methodology

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