Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) Fair Value 2026

DX · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) trades at $12.91, versus a $21.45 median fair value across its 5 active models — 66.1% above the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DX
Price
$12.91
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +85.3% upside with 47% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $21.45, 66.1% above the current price of $12.91. Estimates range from $15.17 to $23.93. DX scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. DX’s +66.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Dynex Capital, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DX?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.91)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $21.82 +69.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $23.93 +85.3%
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What Is DX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $15.17 to $23.93

CirclFi's 5 active models place Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) between $15.17 and $23.93 per share, a spread of 41% of the median. The median of that range — $21.45 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DX, against a current price of $12.91.

Low · FTNNHigh · Markov DDM
$15.17median $21.45$23.93
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$15.17
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$23.93
Model agreement5 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Dynex Capital, Inc.. Trading at $12.91 against an estimated intrinsic value of $21.45, 5 of 5 active models flag meaningful upside of +66.1% at the median. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $23.93 (+85.3%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $15.17 (+17.5%). This +67.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Dynex Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About DX?

5 of 13 models are currently active for DX. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for DX is $21.45 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DX Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, DX ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

Dynex Capital, Inc.'s positioning within the REIT - Mortgage segment means that same-property NOI growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including tenant credit quality — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is DX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DX a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Dynex Capital, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Dynex Capital, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +67.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DX's 5 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Dynex Capital, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc.QOC 8.0REFIChicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 7.6EFCEllington Financial Inc.QOC 8.1SUNSSunrise Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.6NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.QOC 8.1LOANManhattan Bridge Capital, Inc.QOC 7.5CHMICherry Hill Mortgage Investment CorporationQOC 7.2BRSPBrightSpire Capital, Inc.QOC 6.1KREFKKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.QOC 4.8ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: IVR · REFI · EFC · SUNS · NLY · LOAN · CHMI · BRSP · KREF · ORC · FBRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DX?

7 companies across all industries closest to DX’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

ACMAECOMQOC 7.9HEREHere Group LimitedQOC 7.9LBRTLiberty Energy Inc.QOC 7.9RPDRapid7, Inc.QOC 7.9ATOAtmos Energy CorporationQOC 7.9SCIService Corporation InternationalQOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ACM · HERE · LBRT · RPD · ATO · SCI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Dynex Capital, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Dynex Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX)'s intrinsic value at $21.45 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $15.17 to $23.93. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.91, 5 of 5 active models suggest DX may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $21.45, 66.1% above the current price of $12.91 — a consensus view that DX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Dynex Capital, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for DX?

Dynex Capital, Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DX?

CirclFi analyzes DX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DX?

Of the 5 models currently active on DX, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $23.93 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $15.17. CirclFi's published fair value for DX is the median of that range, $21.45, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 41% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DX a value trap in 2026?

Dynex Capital, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) has a median fair value of $21.45 — 66.1% above the current price of $12.91 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DX valuation
  • Financial statements: Dynex Capital, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000826675) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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