What Is Ares Commercial Real Estate Cor (ACRE) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ares Commercial Real Estate Cor's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $6.38. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $4.56 (implied upside of +39.8%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 8 bullish models. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +216.2% (fair value: $14.42), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -72.4% ($1.26). The spread between these extremes — +288.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About ACRE?
8 of 13 models are currently active for ACRE. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ACRE's intrinsic value at $13.33, implying +192.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ACRE Rank in REIT - Mortgage?
Among 14 REIT - Mortgage stocks, ACRE ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.
Within the REIT - Mortgage space, Ares Commercial Real Estate Cor competes in an environment where same-property NOI growth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is ACRE a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACRE a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
8 of 13 models are active for Ares Commercial Real Estate Cor. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Ares Commercial Real Estate Cor is rated at 5.8/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +288.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ACRE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ACRE's 8 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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