Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT) Fair Value 2026

RWT · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT) trades at $4.62, versus a $10.71 median fair value across its 3 active models — 131.8% above the current price. QOC: 5.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RWT
Price
$4.62
Quality Score
5.7/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +142.3% upside with 45% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $10.71, 131.8% above the current price of $4.62. Estimates range from $2.27 to $11.19. RWT scores 5.7/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. RWT’s +131.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Redwood Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RWT?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.27 -50.8%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $11.19 +142.3%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $10.71 +131.8%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is RWT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $2.27 to $11.19

CirclFi's 3 active models place Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT) between $2.27 and $11.19 per share, a spread of 83% of the median. The median of that range — $10.71 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RWT, against a current price of $4.62.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.27median $10.71$11.19
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$2.27
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$11.19
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RWT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Redwood Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $10.71. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $4.62 (implied upside of +131.8%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 2 of 3 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +142.3% (fair value: $11.19), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -50.8% ($2.27). The spread between these extremes — +193.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About RWT?

3 of 13 models are currently active for RWT. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for RWT is $10.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RWT Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, RWT ranks #32 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Within the REIT - Mortgage space, Redwood Trust, Inc. competes in an environment where occupancy rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is RWT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RWT a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Redwood Trust, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Redwood Trust, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.7/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +193.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RWT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RWT's 3 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Redwood Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

GPMTGranite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.QOC 5.8ACREAres Commercial Real Estate CorporationQOC 5.6RCReady Capital CorporationQOC 6.0TWOTwo Harbors Investment Corp.QOC 5.4BRSPBrightSpire Capital, Inc.QOC 6.1LFTLument Finance Trust, Inc.QOC 5.3MITTTPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2LOANManhattan Bridge Capital, Inc.QOC 7.5SACHSachem Capital Corp.QOC 6.9ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: GPMT · ACRE · RC · TWO · BRSP · LFT · MITT · LOAN · SACH · ORC · FBRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RWT?

7 companies across all industries closest to RWT’s Quality of Company score of 5.7/10.

CMTLComtech Telecommunications Corp.QOC 5.7WHWKWhitehawk Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.7IMAImageneBio, Inc.QOC 5.7IHTInnSuites Hospitality TrustQOC 5.7CETXCemtrex, Inc.QOC 5.7USDWUSDWQOC 5.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CMTL · WHWK · IMA · IHT · CETX · USDW · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Redwood Trust, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Redwood Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT)'s intrinsic value at $10.71 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.27 to $11.19. The Quality of Company score is 5.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RWT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.62, 2 of 3 active models suggest RWT may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $10.71, 131.8% above the current price of $4.62 — a consensus view that RWT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Redwood Trust, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.7 mean for RWT?

Redwood Trust, Inc.'s QOC of 5.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RWT?

CirclFi analyzes RWT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RWT?

Of the 3 models currently active on RWT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $11.19 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $2.27. CirclFi's published fair value for RWT is the median of that range, $10.71, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 83% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RWT a value trap in 2026?

Redwood Trust, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT) has a median fair value of $10.71 — 131.8% above the current price of $4.62 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RWT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RWT valuation
  • Financial statements: Redwood Trust, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000930236) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RWT as of ; valuations recomputed .