Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) Fair Value 2026

PCVX · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) trades at $56.74, approximately 273% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $15.19. QOC: 5.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PCVX
Price
$56.74
Quality Score
5.1/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +26.5% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $26.05, 54.1% below the current price of $56.74. Estimates range from $6.38 to $71.79. PCVX scores 5.1/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Vaxcyte, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($56.74)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $15.19 -73.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $27.17 -52.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $24.92 -56.1%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $71.79 +26.5%

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What Is Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Vaxcyte, Inc. at its current price of $56.74. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $31.96 (-43.7% average return), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $71.79 (+26.5%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $6.38 (-88.8%). This +115.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Vaxcyte, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PCVX?

10 of 13 models are currently active for PCVX. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates PCVX's intrinsic value at $15.19, implying -73.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PCVX Rank in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)?

Among 134 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks, PCVX ranks #73 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.1 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks →

Vaxcyte, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is PCVX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PCVX a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Vaxcyte, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Vaxcyte, Inc. is rated at 5.1/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +115.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PCVX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PCVX's 10 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vaxcyte, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks with 13-model coverage

EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 10.0HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 10.0NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.QOC 10.0GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7PLXProtalix BioTherapeutics, Inc. QOC 8.6BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 8.4IMCRImmunocore Holdings plcQOC 7.9TECHBio-Techne CorpQOC 7.8

Read investment analysis: EXEL · HALO · NBIX · GILD · PLX

See all Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Vaxcyte, Inc.

What is Vaxcyte, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $15.19. The Quality of Company score is 5.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PCVX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $56.74, 2 of 10 active models suggest PCVX may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $26.05, 54.1% below the current price of $56.74 — a consensus view that PCVX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vaxcyte, Inc.'s business model in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances).

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.1 mean for PCVX?

Vaxcyte, Inc.'s QOC of 5.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PCVX?

CirclFi analyzes PCVX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PCVX a value trap in 2026?

Vaxcyte, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) has a median fair value of $26.05 — 54.1% below the current price of $56.74 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PCVX/ · Methodology

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