ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SPRY) Fair Value 2026

SPRY · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SPRY) trades at $7.55, approximately 413% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.47. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SPRY
Price
$7.55
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SPRY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SPRY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $1.51, 80.0% below the current price of $7.55. Estimates range from $0.47 to $8.60. SPRY scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $1.47 -80.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $2.25 -70.3%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $0.47 -93.8%
ML-RIV
High Conviction
 $1.55 -79.5%

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What Is ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SPRY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.39. Trading at its current price of $7.55, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -68.3%. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +13.9% (fair value: $8.60), while First Chicago is the most conservative at -93.8% ($0.47). The spread between these extremes — +107.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SPRY?

10 of 13 models are currently active for SPRY. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SPRY's intrinsic value at $1.47, implying -80.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SPRY Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 431 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, SPRY ranks #117 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s positioning within the Pharmaceutical Preparations segment means that revenue per drug plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including regulatory pathway clarity — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SPRY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPRY a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.1/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +107.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SPRY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SPRY's 10 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

AZNAstraZeneca PLCQOC 10.0CPRXCatalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 10.0HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, IQOC 10.0NVONovo Nordisk A/SQOC 10.0SIGASIGA Technologies Inc.QOC 10.0UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 10.0ZTSZoetis Inc.QOC 10.0RDYDr. Reddy's Laboratories LtdQOC 9.9

Read investment analysis: AZN · CPRX · HRMY · NVO · SIGA

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

What is ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SPRY) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.47. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SPRY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.55, 1 of 10 active models suggest SPRY may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $1.51, 80.0% below the current price of $7.55 — a consensus view that SPRY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for SPRY?

ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SPRY?

CirclFi analyzes SPRY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SPRY a value trap in 2026?

ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SPRY) has a median fair value of $1.51 — 80.0% below the current price of $7.55 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SPRY/ · Methodology

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