LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. (LENZ) Fair Value 2026

LENZ · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. (LENZ) trades at $4.99, approximately 142% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.06. QOC: 5.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LENZ
Price
$4.99
Quality Score
5.4/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. (LENZ) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. (LENZ) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $2.62, 47.4% below the current price of $4.99. Estimates range from $0.81 to $8.39. LENZ scores 5.4/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$2.06 -58.8%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$1.74 -65.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$3.48 -30.2%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$2.62 -47.4%

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What Is LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. (LENZ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. at its current price of $4.99. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $3.82 (-23.4% average return), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, EROIC sees the most upside at +68.1% (fair value: $8.39), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -83.9% ($0.81). The spread between these extremes — +152.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About LENZ?

11 of 13 models are currently active for LENZ. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates LENZ's intrinsic value at $2.06, implying -58.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LENZ Rank in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)?

Among 134 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks, LENZ ranks #59 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks →

LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is LENZ a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LENZ a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for LENZ Therapeutics, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. is rated at 5.4/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +152.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LENZ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LENZ's 11 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EXEL · HALO · NBIX · GILD · PLX

See all Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About LENZ Therapeutics, Inc.

What is LENZ Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. (LENZ) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.06. The Quality of Company score is 5.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LENZ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.99, 4 of 11 active models suggest LENZ may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $2.62, 47.4% below the current price of $4.99 — a consensus view that LENZ is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LENZ Therapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances).

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.4 mean for LENZ?

LENZ Therapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 5.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LENZ?

CirclFi analyzes LENZ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is LENZ a value trap in 2026?

LENZ Therapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, LENZ Therapeutics, Inc. (LENZ) has a median fair value of $2.62 — 47.4% below the current price of $4.99 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LENZ/ · Methodology

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