Nightfood Holdings, Inc. (NGTF) Fair Value 2026

NGTF · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Nightfood Holdings, Inc. (NGTF) trades at $0.04, versus a $0.12 median fair value across its 2 active models — 207.3% above the current price. QOC: 5.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NGTF
Price
$0.04
Quality Score
5.5/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +487.9% upside with 32% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Nightfood Holdings, Inc. (NGTF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Nightfood Holdings, Inc. (NGTF) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $0.12, 207.3% above the current price of $0.04. Estimates range from $0.01 to $0.22. NGTF scores 5.5/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NGTF’s +207.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nightfood Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NGTF?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $0.22 +487.9%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $0.01 -73.3%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Nightfood Holdings, Inc. (NGTF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nightfood Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $0.12, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $0.04. While the median implied return is +207.3%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +561.3% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $0.22 (+487.9%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $0.01 (-73.3%). This +561.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Nightfood Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NGTF?

2 of 13 models are currently active for NGTF. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NGTF is $0.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NGTF Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, NGTF ranks #57 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.5 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

As a industrial sector, Nightfood Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where organic revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NGTF should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NGTF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NGTF a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Nightfood Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Nightfood Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +561.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NGTF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NGTF's 2 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nightfood Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

CVATCavitation Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.6HDRNHadron Energy, Inc.QOC 5.4LASELaser Photonics CorporationQOC 5.6RRRichtech Robotics Inc.QOC 5.4ATSATS CorporationQOC 5.8NEWHNewHydrogen, Inc.QOC 5.0XEX-Energy, Inc.QOC 3.3ETNEaton Corporation plcQOC 8.8TNCTennant CompanyQOC 8.1EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: CVAT · HDRN · LASE · RR · ATS · NEWH · XE · ETN · TNC · EPAC · WTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NGTF?

7 companies across all industries closest to NGTF’s Quality of Company score of 5.5/10.

NHPNational Healthcare Properties, Inc.QOC 5.5NFENew Fortress Energy Inc.QOC 5.5GROYGold Royalty Corp.QOC 5.5VEEETwin Vee Powercats Co.QOC 5.5VERIVeritone, Inc.QOC 5.5LUCDLucid Diagnostics Inc.QOC 5.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NHP · NFE · GROY · VEEE · VERI · LUCD · NVDA

Where Does NGTF Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

NGTF is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nightfood Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Nightfood Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nightfood Holdings, Inc. (NGTF)'s intrinsic value at $0.12 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.01 to $0.22. The Quality of Company score is 5.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NGTF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.04, 1 of 2 active models suggest NGTF may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $0.12, 207.3% above the current price of $0.04 — a consensus view that NGTF is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nightfood Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.5 mean for NGTF?

Nightfood Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 5.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NGTF?

CirclFi analyzes NGTF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NGTF a value trap in 2026?

Nightfood Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Nightfood Holdings, Inc. (NGTF) has a median fair value of $0.12 — 207.3% above the current price of $0.04 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NGTF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NGTF valuation
  • Financial statements: Nightfood Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001593001) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NGTF as of ; valuations recomputed .