Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) Fair Value 2026

MWA · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) trades at $21.96, versus a $18.29 median fair value across its 11 active models — 16.7% below the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $21.59.

Key Facts

Ticker
MWA
Price
$21.96
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +47.3% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $18.29, 16.7% below the current price of $21.96. Estimates range from $3.96 to $37.08. MWA scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. MWA’s -16.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -44.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mueller Water Products, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MWA?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.96)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.59 -1.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.78 -60.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $18.29 -16.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $32.34 +47.3%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$2 / day

Billed monthly ($60/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is MWA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $3.96 to $37.08

CirclFi's 11 active models place Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) between $3.96 and $37.08 per share, a spread of 181% of the median. The median of that range — $18.29 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MWA, against a current price of $21.96.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$3.96median $18.29$37.08
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$3.96
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$37.08
Model agreement4 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MWA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MWA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $18.29, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $21.96. With a median implied return of -16.7% across a split 4–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +150.8% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +68.9% (fair value: $37.08), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -82.0% ($3.96). The spread between these extremes — +150.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MWA?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MWA. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MWA is $18.29 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $21.59 on its own, implying -1.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MWA Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 85 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, MWA ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places MWA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

Within the Specialty Industrial Machinery space, Mueller Water Products, Inc. competes in an environment where order backlog depth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MWA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MWA a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Mueller Water Products, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.3/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +150.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MWA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MWA's 11 active models, average confidence is 58%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mueller Water Products, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

PHParker-Hannifin CorporationQOC 9.3ITTITT Inc.QOC 9.3WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3XYLXylem Inc.QOC 9.1EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4NDSNNordson CorporationQOC 9.1SXIStandex International CorporationQOC 8.6LXFRLuxfer Holdings PLCQOC 7.4INIOInnio N.V.QOC 4.8

Read investment analysis: PH · ITT · WTS · XYL · EPAC · NDSN · SXI · LXFR · INIO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MWA?

6 companies across all industries closest to MWA’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

BZKanzhun LimitedQOC 9.3METAMeta Platforms, Inc.QOC 9.3HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3DGIIDigi International Inc.QOC 9.3BMIBadger Meter, Inc.QOC 9.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BZ · META · HWM · DGII · BMI · NVDA

Where Does MWA Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

MWA is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mueller Water Products, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA)'s intrinsic value at $18.29 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $3.96 to $37.08. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $21.59 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MWA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.96, 4 of 11 active models suggest MWA may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $18.29, 16.7% below the current price of $21.96 — a consensus view that MWA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for MWA?

Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MWA?

CirclFi analyzes MWA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MWA?

Of the 11 models currently active on MWA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $37.08 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $3.96. CirclFi's published fair value for MWA is the median of that range, $18.29, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 181% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MWA a value trap in 2026?

Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) has a median fair value of $18.29 — 16.7% below the current price of $21.96 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MWA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MWA valuation
  • Financial statements: Mueller Water Products, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001350593) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MWA as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on MWA.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $60/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for MWA Unlock All 11 — $60/mo