MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) Fair Value 2026

MSA · Security & Protection Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (5/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) trades at $182.45, versus a $82.30 median fair value across its 11 active models — 54.9% below the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 5/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $69.13.

Key Facts

Ticker
MSA
Price
$182.45
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
5/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $82.30, 54.9% below the current price of $182.45. Estimates range from $43.70 to $315.74. MSA scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 5/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. MSA’s -54.9% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MSA Safety Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MSA?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($182.45)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $69.13 -62.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $43.70 -76.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $84.47 -53.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $152.57 -16.4%
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What Is MSA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $43.70 to $315.74

CirclFi's 11 active models place MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) between $43.70 and $315.74 per share, a spread of 331% of the median. The median of that range — $82.30 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MSA, against a current price of $182.45.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$43.70median $82.30$315.74
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$43.70
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$315.74
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MSA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MSA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MSA Safety Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at $82.30, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $182.45. With 10 out of 11 models flagging downside (-54.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $315.74 (+73.1%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $43.70 (-76.0%). This +149.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about MSA Safety Incorporated's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MSA?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MSA. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MSA is $82.30 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $69.13 on its own, implying -62.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MSA Rank in Security & Protection Services?

Among 23 Security & Protection Services stocks, MSA ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places MSA in the top tier.

MSA Safety Incorporated operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MSA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MSA a score of 5/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for MSA Safety Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, MSA Safety Incorporated's fundamental quality profile registers 9.3/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +149.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MSA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MSA's 11 active models, average confidence is 57%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MSA Safety Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Protection Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Security & Protection Services stocks with 13-model coverage

ALLEAllegion plcQOC 9.3BRCBrady CorporationQOC 8.9NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.6CIXCompX International Inc.QOC 8.8GFAIGuardforce AI Co., LimitedQOC 1.9BCOThe Brink's CompanyQOC 8.6MGMistras Group, Inc.QOC 7.7KSCPKnightscope, Inc.QOC 6.3DETXLiberty Defense Holdings, Ltd.QOC 3.6

Read investment analysis: ALLE · BRC · NSSC · CIX · GFAI · BCO · MG · KSCP · DETX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MSA?

6 companies across all industries closest to MSA’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

LNTHLantheus Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.QOC 9.3SBSCompanhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESPQOC 9.3ATENA10 Networks, Inc.QOC 9.3NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LNTH · GWW · SBS · ATEN · NMIH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About MSA Safety Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is MSA Safety Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA)'s intrinsic value at $82.30 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $43.70 to $315.74. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $69.13 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MSA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $182.45, 1 of 11 active models suggest MSA may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $82.30, 54.9% below the current price of $182.45 — a consensus view that MSA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MSA Safety Incorporated's business model in Security & Protection Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for MSA?

MSA Safety Incorporated's QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MSA?

CirclFi analyzes MSA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MSA?

Of the 11 models currently active on MSA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $315.74 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $43.70. CirclFi's published fair value for MSA is the median of that range, $82.30, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 331% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MSA a value trap in 2026?

MSA Safety Incorporated's Value Trap score is 5/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) has a median fair value of $82.30 — 54.9% below the current price of $182.45 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MSA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MSA valuation
  • Financial statements: MSA Safety Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000066570) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MSA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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