Allegion plc (ALLE) Fair Value 2026

ALLE · Security & Protection Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Allegion plc (ALLE) trades at $159.72, versus a $117.97 median fair value across its 11 active models — 26.1% below the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $171.01.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALLE
Price
$159.72
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +7.1% upside with 75% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Allegion plc (ALLE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Allegion plc (ALLE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $117.97, 26.1% below the current price of $159.72. Estimates range from $56.32 to $272.35. ALLE scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ALLE’s -26.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Allegion plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALLE?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($159.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $171.01 +7.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $74.84 -53.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $117.97 -26.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $138.95 -13.0%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ALLE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $56.32 to $272.35

CirclFi's 11 active models place Allegion plc (ALLE) between $56.32 and $272.35 per share, a spread of 183% of the median. The median of that range — $117.97 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALLE, against a current price of $159.72.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$56.32median $117.97$272.35
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$56.32
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$272.35
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALLE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALLE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Allegion plc (ALLE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Allegion plc's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $117.97. Trading at $159.72, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -26.1%), as 8 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +70.5% (fair value: $272.35), while EROIC is the most conservative at -64.7% ($56.32). The spread between these extremes — +135.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ALLE?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ALLE. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ALLE is $117.97 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $171.01 on its own, implying +7.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALLE Rank in Security & Protection Services?

Among 22 Security & Protection Services stocks, ALLE ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places ALLE in the top tier.

Allegion plc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ALLE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALLE a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Allegion plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Allegion plc earns a quality score of 9.3/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +135.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALLE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALLE's 11 active models, average confidence is 58%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Allegion plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Protection Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Security & Protection Services stocks with 13-model coverage

NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.6MSAMSA Safety IncorporatedQOC 9.3GFAIGuardforce AI Co., LimitedQOC 1.9CIXCompX International Inc.QOC 8.8SPCBSuperCom Ltd.QOC 2.1BRCBrady CorporationQOC 8.8GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.QOC 7.7KSCPKnightscope, Inc.QOC 6.3AGSSAmeriguard Security Services, Inc.QOC 4.5

Read investment analysis: NSSC · MSA · GFAI · CIX · SPCB · BRC · GEO · KSCP · AGSS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALLE?

6 companies across all industries closest to ALLE’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

FSLRFirst Solar, Inc.QOC 9.3LNTHLantheus Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3ALRMAlarm.com Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3NTAPNetApp, Inc.QOC 9.3ZTSZoetis Inc.QOC 9.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FSLR · LNTH · ALRM · NTAP · ZTS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Allegion plc’s Valuation?

What is Allegion plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Allegion plc (ALLE)'s intrinsic value at $117.97 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $56.32 to $272.35. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $171.01 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALLE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $159.72, 2 of 11 active models suggest ALLE may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $117.97, 26.1% below the current price of $159.72 — a consensus view that ALLE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Allegion plc's business model in Security & Protection Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for ALLE?

Allegion plc's QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALLE?

CirclFi analyzes ALLE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALLE?

Of the 11 models currently active on ALLE, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $272.35 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $56.32. CirclFi's published fair value for ALLE is the median of that range, $117.97, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 183% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALLE a value trap in 2026?

Allegion plc's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Allegion plc (ALLE) has a median fair value of $117.97 — 26.1% below the current price of $159.72 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALLE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALLE valuation
  • Financial statements: Allegion plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001579241) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALLE as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ALLE.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for ALLE Unlock All 11 — $39/mo