Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Fair Value 2026

ALRM · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) trades at $57.60, versus a $51.32 median fair value across its 10 active models — 10.9% below the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $72.01.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALRM
Price
$57.60
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +25.0% upside with 72% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $51.32, 10.9% below the current price of $57.60. Estimates range from $13.04 to $72.01. ALRM scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ALRM’s -10.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALRM?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($57.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $72.01 +25.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.04 -77.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $48.61 -15.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $65.48 +13.7%
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What Is ALRM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $13.04 to $72.01

CirclFi's 10 active models place Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) between $13.04 and $72.01 per share, a spread of 115% of the median. The median of that range — $51.32 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALRM, against a current price of $57.60.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$13.04median $51.32$72.01
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$13.04
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$72.01
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALRM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALRM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $51.32. Trading at $57.60, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -10.9%), as 6 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $72.01 (+25.0%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $13.04 (-77.4%). This +102.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ALRM?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ALRM. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ALRM is $51.32 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $72.01 on its own, implying +25.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALRM Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, ALRM ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places ALRM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

The Software - Application sector introduces analytical considerations specific to technology businesses. For Alarm.com Holdings, Inc., metrics like net revenue retention (NRR) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ALRM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALRM a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. scores 9.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +102.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALRM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALRM's 10 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.QOC 9.3SHOPShopify Inc.QOC 9.3ADBEAdobe Inc.QOC 9.4TRAKReposiTrak, Inc.QOC 9.2PEGAPegasystems Inc.QOC 9.4APPFAppFolio, Inc.QOC 9.2BVCBitVentures LimitedQOC 7.8HTCRHeartCore Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.4RPGLRepublic Power Group LimitedQOC 4.6ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: ADP · SHOP · ADBE · TRAK · PEGA · APPF · BVC · HTCR · RPGL · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALRM?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALRM’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

ZTSZoetis Inc.QOC 9.3FSLRFirst Solar, Inc.QOC 9.3WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.QOC 9.3ALLEAllegion plcQOC 9.3CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc.QOC 9.3LNTHLantheus Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ZTS · FSLR · WSM · ALLE · CBOE · LNTH · NVDA

Where Does ALRM Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

ALRM is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM)'s intrinsic value at $51.32 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $13.04 to $72.01. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $72.01 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALRM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $57.60, 4 of 10 active models suggest ALRM may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $51.32, 10.9% below the current price of $57.60 — a consensus view that ALRM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for ALRM?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALRM?

CirclFi analyzes ALRM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALRM?

Of the 10 models currently active on ALRM, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $72.01 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $13.04. CirclFi's published fair value for ALRM is the median of that range, $51.32, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 115% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALRM a value trap in 2026?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) has a median fair value of $51.32 — 10.9% below the current price of $57.60 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALRM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALRM valuation
  • Financial statements: Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001459200) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALRM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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