What Is Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $53.82, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $52.24. While the average implied return is +3.0%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +255.9% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $143.58 (+174.8%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $9.87 (-81.1%). This +255.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About ALRM?
13 of 13 models are currently active for ALRM. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ALRM's intrinsic value at $54.54, implying +4.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ALRM Rank in Software - Application?
Among 20 Software - Application stocks, ALRM ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places ALRM in the top tier.
The Software - Application sector introduces analytical considerations specific to technology businesses. For Alarm.com Holdings, Inc., metrics like net revenue retention (NRR) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is ALRM a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALRM a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. scores 10.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +255.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ALRM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ALRM's 13 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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