Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Fair Value 2026

ADBE · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) trades at $289.15, versus a $371.67 median fair value across its 9 active models — 28.5% above the current price. QOC: 9.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $371.67.

Key Facts

Ticker
ADBE
Price
$289.15
Quality Score
9.4/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +76.6% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $371.67, 28.5% above the current price of $289.15. Estimates range from $124.06 to $724.90. ADBE scores 9.4/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ADBE’s +28.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Adobe Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ADBE?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($289.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $371.67 +28.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $153.39 -47.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $321.02 +11.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $510.71 +76.6%
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What Is ADBE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $124.06 to $724.90

CirclFi's 9 active models place Adobe Inc. (ADBE) between $124.06 and $724.90 per share, a spread of 162% of the median. The median of that range — $371.67 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ADBE, against a current price of $289.15.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$124.06median $371.67$724.90
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$124.06
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$724.90
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ADBE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ADBE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Adobe Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $371.67. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $289.15 (implied upside of +28.5%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 6 of 9 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +150.7% (fair value: $724.90), while EROIC is the most conservative at -57.1% ($124.06). The spread between these extremes — +207.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ADBE?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ADBE. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ADBE is $371.67 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $371.67 on its own, implying +28.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ADBE Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, ADBE ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places ADBE in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

The Software - Application sector introduces analytical considerations specific to software business businesses. For Adobe Inc., metrics like annual recurring revenue (ARR) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ADBE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADBE a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Adobe Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Adobe Inc. scores 9.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +207.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ADBE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ADBE's 9 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Adobe Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

PEGAPegasystems Inc.QOC 9.4ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.QOC 9.3NOWServiceNow, Inc.QOC 9.4ALRMAlarm.com Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3CRMSalesforce, Inc.QOC 9.4SHOPShopify Inc.QOC 9.3PLUSePlus inc.QOC 7.9FIGFigma, Inc.QOC 6.5BTDRBitdeer Technologies GroupQOC 4.7ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: PEGA · ADP · NOW · ALRM · CRM · SHOP · PLUS · FIG · BTDR · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ADBE?

7 companies across all industries closest to ADBE’s Quality of Company score of 9.4/10.

JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4LIILennox International Inc.QOC 9.4TTTrane Technologies plcQOC 9.4RNRRenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.QOC 9.4EMEEMCOR Group, Inc.QOC 9.4GSLGlobal Ship Lease, Inc.QOC 9.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: JFIN · LII · TT · RNR · EME · GSL · NVDA

Where Does ADBE Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

ADBE is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Adobe Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Adobe Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Adobe Inc. (ADBE)'s intrinsic value at $371.67 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $124.06 to $724.90. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $371.67 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ADBE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $289.15, 6 of 9 active models suggest ADBE may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $371.67, 28.5% above the current price of $289.15 — a consensus view that ADBE is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Adobe Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.4 mean for ADBE?

Adobe Inc.'s QOC of 9.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ADBE?

CirclFi analyzes ADBE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ADBE?

Of the 9 models currently active on ADBE, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $724.90 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $124.06. CirclFi's published fair value for ADBE is the median of that range, $371.67, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 162% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ADBE a value trap in 2026?

Adobe Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) has a median fair value of $371.67 — 28.5% above the current price of $289.15 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ADBE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ADBE valuation
  • Financial statements: Adobe Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000796343) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ADBE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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